TriCo Bancshares Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TCBK Stock | USD 48.83 0.23 0.47% |
TriCo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although TriCo Bancshares' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TriCo Bancshares' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TriCo Bancshares fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of TriCo Bancshares' share price is at 53. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TriCo Bancshares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.925 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.035 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.2083 | Wall Street Target Price 55.1667 |
Using TriCo Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TriCo Bancshares from the perspective of TriCo Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TriCo Bancshares using TriCo Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TriCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TriCo Bancshares' stock price.
TriCo Bancshares Short Interest
An investor who is long TriCo Bancshares may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TriCo Bancshares and may potentially protect profits, hedge TriCo Bancshares with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.6202 | Short Percent 0.0209 | Short Ratio 5.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 598.9 K | 50 Day MA 48.2948 |
TriCo Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 48.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.46.TriCo Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TriCo Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TriCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TriCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TriCo Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TriCo Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TriCo Bancshares.
TriCo Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TriCo Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TriCo Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when TriCo Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 48.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.46. TriCo Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 49.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TriCo Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TriCo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TriCo Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With TriCo Bancshares trading at USD 48.83, that is roughly USD 0.0275 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TriCo Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring TriCo Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 TriCo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TriCo Bancshares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TriCo Bancshares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TriCo Bancshares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TriCo Bancshares' open interest, investors have to compare it to TriCo Bancshares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TriCo Bancshares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TriCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TriCo Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TriCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TriCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze TriCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TriCo Bancshares Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 48.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TriCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TriCo Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TriCo Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TriCo Bancshares | TriCo Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TriCo Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TriCo Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TriCo Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.32 and 50.35, respectively. We have considered TriCo Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TriCo Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TriCo Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6178 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0945 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5576 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.4572 |
Predictive Modules for TriCo Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TriCo Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TriCo Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TriCo Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TriCo Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TriCo Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TriCo Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TriCo Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TriCo Bancshares' historical news coverage. TriCo Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.64 and 50.66, respectively. We have considered TriCo Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TriCo Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TriCo Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
TriCo Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TriCo Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TriCo Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TriCo Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.51 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
48.83 | 49.15 | 0.66 |
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TriCo Bancshares Hype Timeline
TriCo Bancshares is at this time traded for 48.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. TriCo is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 49.15 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 90.42%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.66%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on TriCo Bancshares is about 2796.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.84. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 533.31 M. Net Income was 121.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 407 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TriCo Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.TriCo Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TriCo Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TriCo Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how TriCo Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TriCo Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.08 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.46 | (2.96) | 7.97 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | (0.35) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.02 | 3.31 | (2.78) | 7.82 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.73 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.75) | 8.20 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.03) | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 2.95 | (2.38) | 6.47 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 0.49 | 36 per month | 1.38 | 0.1 | 2.62 | (2.81) | 9.17 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | (0.03) | 8 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 5.13 | (2.50) | 9.65 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.04 | 3.89 | (2.97) | 8.63 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.19 | 0.05 | 2.85 | (2.64) | 9.76 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | (0.23) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.01 | 2.33 | (1.59) | 8.32 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.46 | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 8.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for TriCo Bancshares
For every potential investor in TriCo, whether a beginner or expert, TriCo Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TriCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TriCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TriCo Bancshares' price trends.TriCo Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TriCo Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TriCo Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TriCo Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TriCo Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TriCo Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TriCo Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TriCo Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TriCo Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.47 |
TriCo Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of TriCo Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TriCo Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TriCo Bancshares
The number of cover stories for TriCo Bancshares depends on current market conditions and TriCo Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TriCo Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TriCo Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TriCo Bancshares Short Properties
TriCo Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when TriCo Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TriCo Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TriCo Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TriCo Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TriCo Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy TriCo Stock please use our How to buy in TriCo Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TriCo Bancshares. If investors know TriCo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive TriCo Bancshares assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | Dividend Share 1.38 | Earnings Share 3.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
TriCo Bancshares's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on TriCo's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate TriCo Bancshares' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since TriCo Bancshares' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TriCo Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TriCo Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TriCo Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.