Triumph Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.95
| TGI Stock | USD 18.95 0.32 1.66% |
Triumph |
Triumph Target Price Odds to finish over 18.95
The tendency of Triumph Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 18.95 | 90 days | 18.95 | about 1.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Triumph to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.41 (This Triumph Group probability density function shows the probability of Triumph Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Triumph will likely underperform. Additionally Triumph Group has an alpha of 0.3518, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Triumph Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Triumph
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Triumph Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Triumph is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Triumph's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Triumph Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Triumph within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Triumph Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Triumph for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Triumph Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Triumph Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Triumph Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments | |
| Triumph Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Glancy Prongay Murray LLP Announces Investigation of Triumph Group, Inc. |
Triumph Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Triumph Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Triumph's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triumph's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 392.5 M |
Triumph Technical Analysis
Triumph's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Triumph Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Triumph Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Triumph Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Triumph Predictive Forecast Models
Triumph's time-series forecasting models is one of many Triumph's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Triumph's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Triumph Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Triumph for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Triumph Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Triumph Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Triumph Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments | |
| Triumph Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Glancy Prongay Murray LLP Announces Investigation of Triumph Group, Inc. |
Check out Triumph Backtesting, Triumph Valuation, Triumph Correlation, Triumph Hype Analysis, Triumph Volatility, Triumph History as well as Triumph Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Earnings Share (0.16) | Revenue Per Share 15.722 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 | Return On Assets 0.0498 |
The market value of Triumph Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.