Turning Point Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| TPB Stock | USD 118.19 0.18 0.15% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Turning Point Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 118.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.30. Turning Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Turning Point stock prices and determine the direction of Turning Point Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Turning Point's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of Turning Point's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.687 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7933 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.88 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1267 | Wall Street Target Price 121.25 |
Using Turning Point hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Turning Point Brands from the perspective of Turning Point response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Turning Point using Turning Point's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Turning using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Turning Point's stock price.
Turning Point Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Turning Point's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Turning. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Turning Point stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 87.3873 | Short Percent 0.0639 | Short Ratio 3.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 104.7212 |
Turning Point Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Turning Point's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Turning. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Turning can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Turning Point Brands. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Turning Point Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Turning Point's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Turning Point Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Turning Point's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Turning Point stock will not fluctuate a lot when Turning Point's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Turning Point Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 118.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.30. Turning Point after-hype prediction price | USD 118.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Turning Point to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Turning contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Turning Point Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Turning Point trading at USD 118.19, that is roughly USD 0.0421 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Turning Point's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Turning Point Brands options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Turning Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Turning Point's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Turning Point's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Turning Point stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Turning Point's open interest, investors have to compare it to Turning Point's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Turning Point is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Turning. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Turning Point Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Turning price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Turning using various technical indicators. When you analyze Turning charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Turning Point Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Turning Point Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 118.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92, mean absolute percentage error of 6.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Turning Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Turning Point's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Turning Point Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Turning Point | Turning Point Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Turning Point Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Turning Point's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Turning Point's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.15 and 120.23, respectively. We have considered Turning Point's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Turning Point stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Turning Point stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2698 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7473 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9203 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.3 |
Predictive Modules for Turning Point
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turning Point Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Turning Point After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Turning Point at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Turning Point or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Turning Point, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Turning Point Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Turning Point's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Turning Point's historical news coverage. Turning Point's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 116.40 and 120.48, respectively. We have considered Turning Point's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Turning Point is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Turning Point Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Turning Point Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Turning Point is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Turning Point backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Turning Point, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.04 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
118.19 | 118.44 | 0.21 |
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Turning Point Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Turning Point Brands is traded for 118.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Turning is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Turning Point is about 34000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 118.19. The company reported the last year's revenue of 360.66 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 48.03 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 249.08 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Turning Point to cross-verify your projections.Turning Point Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Turning Point's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Turning Point's future price movements. Getting to know how Turning Point's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Turning Point may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UVV | Universal | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.02 | (0.04) | 1.65 | (1.81) | 8.15 | |
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | (0.11) | 13 per month | 1.58 | 0.05 | 2.68 | (2.84) | 8.48 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | 0.29 | 30 per month | 1.55 | (0.05) | 2.79 | (2.71) | 9.28 | |
| NOMD | Nomad Foods | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.82 | (2.18) | 8.79 | |
| ANDE | The Andersons | (1.08) | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.15 | 4.37 | (2.24) | 7.65 | |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | 0.67 | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.76 | (3.33) | 8.55 | |
| STRA | Strategic Education | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.21 | 0.02 | 2.39 | (4.08) | 12.29 | |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute | (0.42) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.86 | (4.31) | 25.31 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.29 | (0.07) | 2.23 | (2.09) | 7.02 | |
| CENT | Central Garden Pet | 0.07 | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.02 | 2.28 | (2.66) | 11.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Turning Point
For every potential investor in Turning, whether a beginner or expert, Turning Point's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Turning Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Turning. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Turning Point's price trends.Turning Point Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Turning Point stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Turning Point could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Turning Point by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Turning Point Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Turning Point stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Turning Point shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Turning Point stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Turning Point Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Turning Point Risk Indicators
The analysis of Turning Point's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Turning Point's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting turning stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Turning Point
The number of cover stories for Turning Point depends on current market conditions and Turning Point's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Turning Point is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Turning Point's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Turning Point Short Properties
Turning Point's future price predictability will typically decrease when Turning Point's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Turning Point Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Turning Point's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turning Point's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Turning Point to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Tobacco space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Turning Point. If investors know Turning will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Turning Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.687 | Dividend Share 0.295 | Earnings Share 3.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.312 |
The market value of Turning Point Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Turning that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Turning Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Turning Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Turning Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Turning Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Turning Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Turning Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Turning Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.