Textron Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TXT Stock | USD 95.00 1.03 1.07% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Textron on the next trading day is expected to be 97.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.31. Textron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Textron's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.84 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.0833 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.838 | Wall Street Target Price 98.41 |
Using Textron hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Textron from the perspective of Textron response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Textron using Textron's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Textron using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Textron's stock price.
Textron Short Interest
An investor who is long Textron may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Textron and may potentially protect profits, hedge Textron with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 80.0495 | Short Percent 0.0333 | Short Ratio 3.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 86.2768 |
Textron Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Textron's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Textron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Textron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Textron. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Textron Implied Volatility | 0.42 |
Textron's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Textron stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Textron's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Textron stock will not fluctuate a lot when Textron's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Textron on the next trading day is expected to be 97.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.31. Textron after-hype prediction price | USD 96.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Textron to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Textron contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Textron will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0263% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Textron trading at USD 95.0, that is roughly USD 0.0249 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Textron's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Textron options at the current volatility level of 0.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Textron Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Textron's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Textron's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Textron stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Textron's open interest, investors have to compare it to Textron's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Textron is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Textron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Textron Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Textron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Textron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Textron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Textron's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.4 B | Current Value 1.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 699.8 M |
Textron Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Textron on the next trading day is expected to be 97.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Textron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Textron's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Textron Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Textron | Textron Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Textron Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Textron's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Textron's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.68 and 99.12, respectively. We have considered Textron's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Textron stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Textron stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5625 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0379 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.3133 |
Predictive Modules for Textron
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Textron. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Textron's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Textron After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Textron at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Textron or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Textron, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Textron Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Textron's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Textron's historical news coverage. Textron's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.38 and 97.80, respectively. We have considered Textron's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Textron is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Textron is based on 3 months time horizon.
Textron Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Textron is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Textron backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Textron, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.22 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
95.00 | 96.59 | 0.58 |
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Textron Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Textron is traded for 95.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.53, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.44. Textron is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 96.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 64.89%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Textron is about 78.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.44. The company reported the last year's revenue of 13.7 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 922 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.53 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Textron to cross-verify your projections.Textron Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Textron's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Textron's future price movements. Getting to know how Textron's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Textron may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.26 | 4.34 | (2.56) | 10.50 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 1.79 | 7 per month | 1.22 | 0.16 | 3.61 | (2.23) | 16.03 | |
| ERJ | Embraer SA ADR | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 4.02 | (2.78) | 10.26 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 2.15 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.18 | (2.28) | 5.10 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 4.30 | 9 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corp | 1.09 | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.09 | 2.68 | (1.98) | 12.89 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.16 | 12 per month | 1.13 | 0.25 | 3.92 | (2.24) | 8.49 | |
| KTOS | Kratos Defense Security | 1.01 | 8 per month | 3.95 | 0.10 | 8.14 | (6.46) | 20.15 | |
| MAS | Masco | 2.89 | 8 per month | 1.55 | (0.02) | 3.51 | (2.29) | 7.82 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 0.34 | 12 per month | 1.89 | (0.0008) | 4.05 | (2.70) | 9.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Textron
For every potential investor in Textron, whether a beginner or expert, Textron's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Textron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Textron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Textron's price trends.Textron Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Textron stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Textron could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Textron by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Textron Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Textron stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Textron shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Textron stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Textron entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17386.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.64) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 95.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 95.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.03) |
Textron Risk Indicators
The analysis of Textron's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Textron's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting textron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8898 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7917 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Textron
The number of cover stories for Textron depends on current market conditions and Textron's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Textron is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Textron's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Textron Short Properties
Textron's future price predictability will typically decrease when Textron's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Textron often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Textron's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Textron's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Additional Tools for Textron Stock Analysis
When running Textron's price analysis, check to measure Textron's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Textron is operating at the current time. Most of Textron's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Textron's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Textron's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Textron to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.