United Fire Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UFCS Stock | USD 34.81 0.20 0.57% |
United Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of United Fire's share price is at 51. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling United Fire, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.961 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.67 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.935 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.625 | Wall Street Target Price 37.5 |
Using United Fire hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Fire Group from the perspective of United Fire response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Fire using United Fire's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Fire's stock price.
United Fire Short Interest
An investor who is long United Fire may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about United Fire and may potentially protect profits, hedge United Fire with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.0439 | Short Percent 0.0119 | Short Ratio 1.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 291.6 K | 50 Day MA 36.183 |
United Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 34.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.88.United Fire Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Fire's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Fire Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Fire's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Fire.
United Fire Implied Volatility | 1.63 |
United Fire's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Fire Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Fire's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Fire stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Fire's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 34.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.88. United Fire after-hype prediction price | USD 34.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Fire to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Fire Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With United Fire trading at USD 34.81, that is roughly USD 0.0355 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Fire's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Fire Group options at the current volatility level of 1.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Fire's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Fire's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Fire stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Fire's open interest, investors have to compare it to United Fire's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Fire is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United Fire Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Fire Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 34.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Fire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Fire Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Fire | United Fire Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Fire Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Fire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Fire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.51 and 37.11, respectively. We have considered United Fire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Fire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Fire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5079 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0803 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.457 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.88 |
Predictive Modules for United Fire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Fire Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Fire After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Fire at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Fire or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Fire, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Fire Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Fire's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Fire's historical news coverage. United Fire's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.53 and 37.09, respectively. We have considered United Fire's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Fire is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Fire Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Fire Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Fire is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Fire backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Fire, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.30 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.81 | 34.81 | 0.00 |
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United Fire Hype Timeline
United Fire Group is at this time traded for 34.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. United is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on United Fire is about 824.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.88. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.99. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United Fire Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Fire to cross-verify your projections.United Fire Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Fire's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Fire's future price movements. Getting to know how United Fire's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Fire may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | (0.43) | 6 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.96 | (0) | 3.79 | (3.08) | 18.12 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 1.60 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.99 | (2.52) | 5.10 | |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Insurance | 0.07 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.17 | (3.44) | 8.64 | |
| BOW | Bowhead Specialty Holdings | (0.94) | 9 per month | 2.71 | (0.02) | 3.56 | (3.96) | 12.02 | |
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance | 1.00 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.82 | (2.36) | 8.47 | |
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank | (0.27) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.07 | 3.78 | (2.55) | 9.88 | |
| EQBK | Equity Bancshares | 0.18 | 8 per month | 1.75 | 0.07 | 2.89 | (2.03) | 13.01 | |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.94 | 0.02 | 1.88 | (1.73) | 5.30 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | 1.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.47 | (2.16) | 6.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Fire
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Fire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Fire's price trends.United Fire Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Fire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Fire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Fire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Fire Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Fire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Fire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Fire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Fire Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Fire Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Fire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Fire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Fire
The number of cover stories for United Fire depends on current market conditions and United Fire's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Fire is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Fire's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Fire Short Properties
United Fire's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Fire's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Fire Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Fire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Fire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.