United Fire Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| UFCS Stock | USD 36.07 0.38 1.06% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 35.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.25. United Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of United Fire's share price is at 55. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling United Fire, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.961 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.67 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.935 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.625 | Wall Street Target Price 37.5 |
Using United Fire hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Fire Group from the perspective of United Fire response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Fire using United Fire's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Fire's stock price.
United Fire Short Interest
An investor who is long United Fire may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about United Fire and may potentially protect profits, hedge United Fire with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 30.6378 | Short Percent 0.0167 | Short Ratio 2.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 235.6 K | 50 Day MA 35.544 |
United Fire Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Fire's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Fire Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Fire's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Fire.
United Fire Implied Volatility | 1.41 |
United Fire's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Fire Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Fire's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Fire stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Fire's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 35.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.25. United Fire after-hype prediction price | USD 36.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Fire to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Fire's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Fire's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Fire stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Fire's open interest, investors have to compare it to United Fire's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Fire is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United Fire Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Fire Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 35.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Fire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Fire Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Fire | United Fire Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Fire Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Fire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Fire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.61 and 38.15, respectively. We have considered United Fire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Fire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Fire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0263 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1291 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4958 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.255 |
Predictive Modules for United Fire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Fire Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for United Fire
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Fire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Fire's price trends.United Fire Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Fire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Fire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Fire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Fire Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of United Fire's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of United Fire's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Fire Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Fire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Fire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Fire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Fire Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Fire Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Fire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Fire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.