Ulta Beauty Stock Forward View
| ULTA Stock | USD 639.23 8.13 1.29% |
Ulta Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ulta Beauty stock prices and determine the direction of Ulta Beauty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ulta Beauty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Ulta Beauty's share price is at 56. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ulta Beauty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 25.5727 | EPS Estimate Next Year 28.4862 | Wall Street Target Price 674.5833 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 4.6004 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 |
Using Ulta Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ulta Beauty from the perspective of Ulta Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ulta Beauty using Ulta Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ulta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ulta Beauty's stock price.
Ulta Beauty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ulta Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ulta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ulta Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 513.0828 | Short Percent 0.0648 | Short Ratio 3.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 600.2714 |
Ulta Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 613.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 710.67.Ulta Beauty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ulta Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ulta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ulta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ulta Beauty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ulta Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ulta Beauty.
Ulta Beauty Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Ulta Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ulta Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ulta Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ulta Beauty's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 613.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 710.67. Ulta Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 630.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ulta contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ulta Beauty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Ulta Beauty trading at USD 639.23, that is roughly USD 0.22 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ulta Beauty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ulta Beauty options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ulta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ulta Beauty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ulta Beauty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ulta Beauty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ulta Beauty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ulta Beauty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ulta Beauty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ulta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ulta Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ulta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ulta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ulta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ulta Beauty Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ulta Beauty's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2006-01-31 | Previous Quarter 242.7 M | Current Value 204.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 270.5 M |
Ulta Beauty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 613.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.65, mean absolute percentage error of 204.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 710.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ulta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ulta Beauty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ulta Beauty | Ulta Beauty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ulta Beauty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ulta Beauty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ulta Beauty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 611.27 and 615.70, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ulta Beauty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ulta Beauty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.4299 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.6504 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 710.6719 |
Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ulta Beauty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ulta Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ulta Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ulta Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ulta Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ulta Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ulta Beauty's historical news coverage. Ulta Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 628.56 and 632.98, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ulta Beauty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ulta Beauty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ulta Beauty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ulta Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ulta Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ulta Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.21 | 0.33 | 0.77 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
639.23 | 630.77 | 0.05 |
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Ulta Beauty Hype Timeline
Ulta Beauty is at this time traded for 639.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.77. Ulta is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 630.77. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Ulta Beauty is about 99.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 640.00. About 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.7. Ulta Beauty recorded earning per share (EPS) of 26.06. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of March 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections.Ulta Beauty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ulta Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ulta Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how Ulta Beauty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ulta Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | (0.97) | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.04 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.42 | (2.26) | 5.37 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 17.52 | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.11 | 2.23 | (2.03) | 9.89 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.04 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | (0.63) | 35 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.06 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | (0.49) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | (2.81) | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.02 | 5.00 | (2.19) | 9.97 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 3.99 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | (0.45) | 9 per month | 1.04 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (1.84) | 6.22 | |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 5.93 | 11 per month | 1.40 | 0.05 | 3.26 | (2.51) | 8.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ulta Beauty
For every potential investor in Ulta, whether a beginner or expert, Ulta Beauty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ulta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ulta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ulta Beauty's price trends.Ulta Beauty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ulta Beauty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ulta Beauty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ulta Beauty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ulta Beauty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ulta Beauty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ulta Beauty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ulta Beauty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ulta Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ulta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ulta Beauty
The number of cover stories for Ulta Beauty depends on current market conditions and Ulta Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ulta Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ulta Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ulta Beauty Short Properties
Ulta Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ulta Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ulta Beauty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 703.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Ulta Beauty assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share 26.06 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Ulta Beauty's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.