Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ULTA Stock | USD 666.18 8.72 1.33% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 627.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,169. Ulta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ulta Beauty stock prices and determine the direction of Ulta Beauty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ulta Beauty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Ulta Beauty's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Ulta, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 25.5314 | EPS Estimate Next Year 28.2557 | Wall Street Target Price 623.5653 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 4.6004 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 |
Using Ulta Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ulta Beauty from the perspective of Ulta Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ulta Beauty using Ulta Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ulta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ulta Beauty's stock price.
Ulta Beauty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ulta Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ulta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ulta Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 490.3472 | Short Percent 0.062 | Short Ratio 2.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 556.5038 |
Ulta Beauty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ulta Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ulta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ulta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ulta Beauty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ulta Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ulta Beauty.
Ulta Beauty Implied Volatility | 0.54 |
Ulta Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ulta Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ulta Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ulta Beauty's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 627.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,169. Ulta Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 663.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ulta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ulta Beauty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ulta Beauty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ulta Beauty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ulta Beauty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ulta Beauty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ulta Beauty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ulta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ulta Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ulta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ulta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ulta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ulta Beauty Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 627.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.16, mean absolute percentage error of 589.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,169.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ulta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ulta Beauty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ulta Beauty | Ulta Beauty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ulta Beauty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ulta Beauty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ulta Beauty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 625.66 and 630.01, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ulta Beauty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ulta Beauty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.489 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 19.1645 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1169.0341 |
Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ulta Beauty
For every potential investor in Ulta, whether a beginner or expert, Ulta Beauty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ulta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ulta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ulta Beauty's price trends.Ulta Beauty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ulta Beauty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ulta Beauty Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ulta Beauty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ulta Beauty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ulta Beauty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ulta Beauty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ulta Beauty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ulta Beauty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ulta Beauty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17935.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4676 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 666.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 666.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.21 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 8.72 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 71.53 |
Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ulta Beauty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ulta Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ulta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 26.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.