Upwork Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| UPWK Stock | USD 17.82 0.77 4.52% |
Upwork Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Upwork's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Upwork's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Upwork fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Upwork's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.05 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2794 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3483 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.429 | Wall Street Target Price 23.9 |
Using Upwork hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Upwork Inc from the perspective of Upwork response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Upwork using Upwork's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Upwork using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Upwork's stock price.
Upwork Short Interest
An investor who is long Upwork may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Upwork and may potentially protect profits, hedge Upwork with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.5895 | Short Percent 0.2254 | Short Ratio 8.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 19 M | 50 Day MA 20.267 |
Upwork Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Upwork Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 17.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.56.Upwork Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Upwork's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Upwork. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Upwork can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Upwork Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Upwork's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Upwork.
Upwork Implied Volatility | 0.66 |
Upwork's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Upwork Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Upwork's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Upwork stock will not fluctuate a lot when Upwork's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Upwork Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 17.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.56. Upwork after-hype prediction price | USD 17.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upwork to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Upwork contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Upwork Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0413% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Upwork trading at USD 17.82, that is roughly USD 0.007351 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Upwork's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Upwork Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Upwork Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Upwork's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Upwork's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Upwork stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Upwork's open interest, investors have to compare it to Upwork's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Upwork is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Upwork. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Upwork Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Upwork price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Upwork using various technical indicators. When you analyze Upwork charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Upwork Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Upwork Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 17.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Upwork Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Upwork's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Upwork Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Upwork | Upwork Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Upwork Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Upwork's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Upwork's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.96 and 20.91, respectively. We have considered Upwork's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Upwork stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Upwork stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8604 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5688 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0292 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.56 |
Predictive Modules for Upwork
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Upwork Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Upwork's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Upwork After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Upwork at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Upwork or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Upwork, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Upwork Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Upwork's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Upwork's historical news coverage. Upwork's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.34 and 21.30, respectively. We have considered Upwork's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Upwork is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Upwork Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Upwork Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Upwork is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Upwork backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Upwork, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.48 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 13 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.82 | 17.82 | 0.00 |
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Upwork Hype Timeline
Upwork Inc is at this time traded for 17.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Upwork is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Upwork is about 2796.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.83. About 97.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Upwork was at this time reported as 4.78. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. Upwork Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upwork to cross-verify your projections.Upwork Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Upwork's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Upwork's future price movements. Getting to know how Upwork's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Upwork may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BWLP | BW LPG Limited | (0.24) | 7 per month | 1.63 | 0.13 | 4.00 | (2.78) | 7.74 | |
| TRTN-PC | Triton International Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | (0) | 0.68 | (0.94) | 2.46 | |
| PSIX | Power Solutions International | 2.53 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.68 | (8.26) | 24.47 | |
| SBLK | Star Bulk Carriers | (1.09) | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.13 | 3.15 | (2.54) | 9.64 | |
| NSP | Insperity | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.91 | (5.53) | 20.10 | |
| RHI | Robert Half International | (0.95) | 7 per month | 2.05 | 0.08 | 4.89 | (3.95) | 35.78 | |
| HUBG | Hub Group | (0.85) | 12 per month | 0.97 | 0.27 | 4.32 | (1.95) | 6.55 | |
| AMRC | Ameresco | (0.46) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.12 | (6.38) | 11.79 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | 2.29 | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.09 | 2.74 | (2.08) | 8.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Upwork
For every potential investor in Upwork, whether a beginner or expert, Upwork's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Upwork Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Upwork. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Upwork's price trends.Upwork Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Upwork stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Upwork could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Upwork by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Upwork Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Upwork stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Upwork shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Upwork stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Upwork Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 284162.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6471 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.95 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.77 |
Upwork Risk Indicators
The analysis of Upwork's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Upwork's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting upwork stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Upwork
The number of cover stories for Upwork depends on current market conditions and Upwork's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Upwork is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Upwork's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Upwork Short Properties
Upwork's future price predictability will typically decrease when Upwork's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Upwork Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Upwork's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Upwork's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 622.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Upwork to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Human Resource & Employment Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Upwork. If investors know Upwork will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Upwork assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.05 | Earnings Share 1.74 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Upwork Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Upwork's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Upwork's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Upwork's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Upwork is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Upwork's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.