Exxon Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| XOM Stock | USD 140.51 0.00 0.00% |
Exxon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Exxon's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Exxon's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exxon fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Exxon's share price is above 70 as of now. This entails that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Exxon, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6277 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.9542 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.9582 | Wall Street Target Price 133.3167 |
Using Exxon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exxon Mobil Corp from the perspective of Exxon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exxon using Exxon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exxon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exxon's stock price.
Exxon Short Interest
An investor who is long Exxon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Exxon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Exxon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 112.9022 | Short Percent 0.0126 | Short Ratio 2.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 46.7 M | 50 Day MA 121.2616 |
Exxon Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.03.Exxon Mobil Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exxon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exxon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exxon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exxon Mobil Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exxon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exxon.
Exxon Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Exxon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exxon Mobil Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exxon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exxon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exxon's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.03. Exxon after-hype prediction price | USD 137.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exxon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exxon Mobil Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Exxon trading at USD 140.51, that is roughly USD 0.0386 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exxon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exxon Mobil Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Exxon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exxon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Exxon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Exxon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exxon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Exxon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exxon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exxon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Exxon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exxon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exxon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exxon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exxon Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 132.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28, mean absolute percentage error of 15.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exxon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exxon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exxon Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exxon | Exxon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Exxon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exxon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exxon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 130.66 and 133.40, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exxon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exxon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8208 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2791 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 200.0257 |
Predictive Modules for Exxon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exxon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exxon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exxon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exxon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exxon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exxon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exxon's historical news coverage. Exxon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.23 and 138.93, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exxon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exxon Mobil Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exxon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exxon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exxon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exxon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.37 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
140.51 | 137.58 | 0.00 |
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Exxon Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Exxon Mobil Corp is traded for 140.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Exxon is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Exxon is about 452.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 140.62. About 67.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Exxon was at this time reported as 61.79. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.88. Exxon Mobil Corp last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 19th of July 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections.Exxon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exxon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exxon's future price movements. Getting to know how Exxon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exxon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | 0.46 | 12 per month | 1.12 | (0.03) | 1.85 | (2.00) | 5.51 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.07 | 2.42 | (3.37) | 8.04 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | (0.17) | 10 per month | 0.70 | 0.30 | 2.77 | (1.62) | 7.59 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.51 | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.23 | 3.70 | (1.82) | 11.62 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 2.29 | (1.86) | 9.56 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 1.02 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.13 | 1.97 | (1.29) | 7.47 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.03 | 2.86 | (3.01) | 7.91 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 1.40 | 30 per month | 1.45 | 0.21 | 4.21 | (2.07) | 10.67 | |
| EC | Ecopetrol SA ADR | 0.12 | 11 per month | 1.72 | 0.23 | 3.15 | (3.07) | 10.93 | |
| YPF | YPF Sociedad Anonima | 0.86 | 10 per month | 1.62 | 0.16 | 4.55 | (3.54) | 29.25 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | 0.50 | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.11 | 3.72 | (2.43) | 8.79 | |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | (0.97) | 11 per month | 1.62 | 0.11 | 2.96 | (2.64) | 8.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Exxon
For every potential investor in Exxon, whether a beginner or expert, Exxon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exxon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exxon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exxon's price trends.Exxon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exxon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exxon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exxon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exxon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exxon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exxon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exxon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exxon Mobil Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0273 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 138.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 139.23 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.92 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 73.94 |
Exxon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exxon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exxon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exxon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9612 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9239 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exxon
The number of cover stories for Exxon depends on current market conditions and Exxon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exxon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exxon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exxon Short Properties
Exxon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exxon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exxon Mobil Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exxon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exxon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector continue expanding? Could Exxon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. Anticipated expansion of Exxon directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Exxon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Dividend Share 3.96 | Earnings Share 6.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Investors evaluate Exxon Mobil Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Exxon's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Exxon's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exxon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Exxon's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.