Archer Aviation Stock Price Prediction
| ACHR Stock | USD 7.48 1.44 23.84% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
79
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.30) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.14) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.84) | Wall Street Target Price 9.2778 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.32) |
Using Archer Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Archer Aviation from the perspective of Archer Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Archer Aviation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Archer Aviation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Archer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Archer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Archer Aviation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Archer Aviation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Archer Aviation.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Archer Aviation to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Archer because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Archer Aviation after-hype prediction price | USD 6.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Archer |
Archer Aviation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Archer Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Archer Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Archer Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Archer Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Archer Aviation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Archer Aviation's historical news coverage. Archer Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.85 and 12.79, respectively. We have considered Archer Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Archer Aviation is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Archer Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Archer Aviation Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Archer Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Archer Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Archer Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.35 | 5.97 | 0.66 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.48 | 6.82 | 8.82 |
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Archer Aviation Hype Timeline
Archer Aviation is presently traded for 7.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.66, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Archer is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.82. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -8.82%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.35%. The volatility of related hype on Archer Aviation is about 18975.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.44. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.31. Archer Aviation had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Archer Aviation Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Archer Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Archer Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Archer Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how Archer Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Archer Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVTL | Vertical Aerospace | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.48 | (11.43) | 35.67 | |
| EH | Ehang Holdings | (0.38) | 10 per month | 5.45 | 0.01 | 10.49 | (7.07) | 38.09 | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | (0.25) | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.33 | 12.54 | (4.74) | 36.25 | |
| LLAP | Terran Orbital Corp | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.17 | (8.57) | 51.59 | |
| LILM | Lilium NV | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 16.05 | (31.43) | 126.32 | |
| EVEX | Eve Holding | 0.01 | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.14 | 7.84 | (4.21) | 15.48 | |
| DPRO | Draganfly | 0.13 | 6 per month | 6.66 | (0) | 17.06 | (11.40) | 35.77 | |
| HEI | Heico | 0.44 | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.04 | 2.49 | (2.16) | 6.49 | |
| RDW | Redwire Corp | 0.09 | 7 per month | 3.12 | 0.23 | 8.38 | (6.07) | 20.40 | |
| MNTS | Momentus | (0.27) | 9 per month | 9.13 | 0.02 | 10.00 | (15.52) | 192.95 | |
| PL | Planet Labs PBC | 0.01 | 10 per month | 5.66 | 0.1 | 7.69 | (5.96) | 37.79 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | (0.07) | 9 per month | 4.37 | 0.01 | 9.21 | (7.06) | 28.44 | |
| ASTR | Astra Space | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.17 | (7.35) | 15.15 |
Archer Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Archer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Archer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Archer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Archer Aviation Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Archer Aviation stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Archer Aviation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Archer Aviation based on analysis of Archer Aviation hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Archer Aviation's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Archer Aviation's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PB Ratio | 2.05 | 0.91 | 4.52 | 4.3 | Capex To Depreciation | 2.69 | 1.57 | 6.82 | 5.65 |
Story Coverage note for Archer Aviation
The number of cover stories for Archer Aviation depends on current market conditions and Archer Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Archer Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Archer Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Archer Aviation Short Properties
Archer Aviation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Archer Aviation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Archer Aviation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Archer Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Archer Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 270.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 464.6 M |
Additional Tools for Archer Stock Analysis
When running Archer Aviation's price analysis, check to measure Archer Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.