Archer Aviation Stock Forward View
| ACHR Stock | USD 7.19 0.24 3.23% |
Archer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Archer Aviation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Archer Aviation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Archer Aviation fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Archer Aviation's share price is approaching 39. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Archer Aviation, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.20) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.83) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.73) | Wall Street Target Price 11.6111 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.20) |
Using Archer Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Archer Aviation from the perspective of Archer Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Archer Aviation using Archer Aviation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Archer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Archer Aviation's stock price.
Archer Aviation Short Interest
An investor who is long Archer Aviation may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Archer Aviation and may potentially protect profits, hedge Archer Aviation with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.5768 | Short Percent 0.1329 | Short Ratio 2.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 90.5 M | 50 Day MA 8.12 |
Archer Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Archer Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.85.Archer Aviation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Archer Aviation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Archer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Archer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Archer Aviation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Archer Aviation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Archer Aviation.
Archer Aviation Implied Volatility | 0.93 |
Archer Aviation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Archer Aviation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Archer Aviation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Archer Aviation stock will not fluctuate a lot when Archer Aviation's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Archer Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.85.
Archer Aviation after-hype prediction price | USD 7.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Aviation to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Archer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Archer Aviation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0581% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Archer Aviation trading at USD 7.19, that is roughly USD 0.004179 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Archer Aviation's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Archer Aviation options at the current volatility level of 0.93%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Archer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Archer Aviation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Archer Aviation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Archer Aviation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Archer Aviation's open interest, investors have to compare it to Archer Aviation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Archer Aviation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Archer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Archer Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Archer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Archer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Archer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Archer Aviation Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Archer Aviation's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 1.7 B | Current Value 595.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 416.7 M |
Archer Aviation Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Archer Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Archer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Archer Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Archer Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Archer Aviation | Archer Aviation Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Archer Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Archer Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Archer Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.95 and 10.33, respectively. We have considered Archer Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Archer Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Archer Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1522 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.309 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0381 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.8475 |
Predictive Modules for Archer Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Archer Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Archer Aviation After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Archer Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Archer Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Archer Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Archer Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Archer Aviation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Archer Aviation's historical news coverage. Archer Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.92 and 11.46, respectively. We have considered Archer Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Archer Aviation is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Archer Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Archer Aviation Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Archer Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Archer Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Archer Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 4.19 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.19 | 7.19 | 0.00 |
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Archer Aviation Hype Timeline
Archer Aviation is presently traded for 7.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.35. Archer is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on Archer Aviation is about 454.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.54. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Archer Aviation was presently reported as 2.54. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.13. Archer Aviation had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Aviation to cross-verify your projections.Archer Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Archer Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Archer Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how Archer Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Archer Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CAE | CAE Inc | 0.16 | 10 per month | 1.52 | 0.08 | 3.17 | (2.27) | 9.61 | |
| PL | Planet Labs PBC | (0.69) | 9 per month | 3.25 | 0.18 | 8.50 | (5.96) | 42.89 | |
| LOAR | Loar Holdings | 0.48 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.42 | (3.66) | 8.43 | |
| SARO | StandardAero | 1.00 | 27 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.06 | (3.65) | 8.19 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | 0.73 | 8 per month | 1.79 | 0.16 | 3.06 | (3.17) | 14.96 | |
| OSK | Oshkosh | (2.40) | 10 per month | 2.10 | 0.02 | 4.11 | (2.56) | 9.25 | |
| FLR | Fluor | 0.43 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.41 | (3.81) | 9.28 | |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | (1.04) | 7 per month | 2.69 | (0.01) | 3.80 | (4.06) | 13.09 | |
| PONY | Pony AI American | 4.33 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.83 | (8.03) | 22.01 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 6.21 | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.27 | 3.81 | (1.72) | 11.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Archer Aviation
For every potential investor in Archer, whether a beginner or expert, Archer Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Archer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Archer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Archer Aviation's price trends.Archer Aviation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Archer Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Archer Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Archer Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Archer Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Archer Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Archer Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Archer Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Archer Aviation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Archer Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Archer Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Archer Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting archer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.24 | |||
| Variance | 17.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Archer Aviation
The number of cover stories for Archer Aviation depends on current market conditions and Archer Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Archer Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Archer Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Archer Aviation Short Properties
Archer Aviation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Archer Aviation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Archer Aviation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Archer Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Archer Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 376.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 834.5 M |
Additional Tools for Archer Stock Analysis
When running Archer Aviation's price analysis, check to measure Archer Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Archer Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Archer Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Archer Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Archer Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Archer Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.