Aurora Innovation Stock Price Prediction
| AUR Stock | USD 6.49 0.55 9.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.65) | Wall Street Target Price 4.418 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.11) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.91) |
Using Aurora Innovation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurora Innovation from the perspective of Aurora Innovation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Aurora Innovation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aurora Innovation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aurora. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aurora can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aurora Innovation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aurora Innovation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aurora Innovation.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aurora Innovation to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aurora because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Aurora Innovation after-hype prediction price | USD 6.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aurora |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Innovation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurora Innovation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurora Innovation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurora Innovation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurora Innovation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurora Innovation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurora Innovation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurora Innovation's historical news coverage. Aurora Innovation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.30 and 12.97, respectively. We have considered Aurora Innovation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurora Innovation is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurora Innovation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurora Innovation Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurora Innovation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurora Innovation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurora Innovation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.85 | 6.96 | 0.18 | 0.46 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.49 | 6.09 | 2.53 |
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Aurora Innovation Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Aurora Innovation is traded for 6.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.46. Aurora is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 2.53%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.85%. The volatility of related hype on Aurora Innovation is about 1279.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.03. Aurora Innovation has 122 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Aurora Innovation Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Aurora Innovation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurora Innovation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurora Innovation's future price movements. Getting to know how Aurora Innovation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurora Innovation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CDW | CDW Corp | 0.38 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.02 | (3.50) | 14.62 | |
| EHGO | Eshallgo Class A | 0.09 | 1 per month | 4.97 | 0.17 | 14.29 | (8.22) | 46.99 | |
| ASYS | Amtech Systems | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.76 | (4.33) | 10.29 | |
| GFI | Gold Fields Ltd | (0.46) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.52 | (5.41) | 14.93 | |
| AGZNF | Aegean Airlines SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.55 | |
| LPG | Dorian LPG | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.97 | (4.58) | 9.93 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | (1.61) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.73 | (2.13) | 4.89 | |
| FORM | FormFactor | (0.44) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.53 | (5.08) | 19.85 | |
| CNK | Cinemark Holdings | 0.08 | 12 per month | 1.24 | 0.09 | 3.60 | (2.45) | 7.52 | |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | (3.37) | 10 per month | 2.17 | 0.08 | 4.92 | (3.96) | 30.27 |
Aurora Innovation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurora price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurora using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurora charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Aurora Innovation Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Aurora Innovation stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aurora Innovation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aurora Innovation based on analysis of Aurora Innovation hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aurora Innovation's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aurora Innovation's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Net Debt To EBITDA | 2.04 | 0.18 | 0.51 | 0.48 | Intangibles To Total Assets | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.21 |
Story Coverage note for Aurora Innovation
The number of cover stories for Aurora Innovation depends on current market conditions and Aurora Innovation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurora Innovation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurora Innovation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aurora Innovation Short Properties
Aurora Innovation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurora Innovation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurora Innovation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurora Innovation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Innovation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B | |
| Shares Float | 961.9 M |
Additional Tools for Aurora Stock Analysis
When running Aurora Innovation's price analysis, check to measure Aurora Innovation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurora Innovation is operating at the current time. Most of Aurora Innovation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurora Innovation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurora Innovation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurora Innovation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.