Axis Capital Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| AXS Stock | USD 91.23 2.48 2.79% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.61 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.7467 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.5689 | Wall Street Target Price 96.5714 |
Using AXIS Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AXIS Capital Holdings from the perspective of AXIS Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
AXIS Capital Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AXIS Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AXIS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AXIS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AXIS Capital Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AXIS Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AXIS Capital.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AXIS Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AXIS because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AXIS Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 88.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AXIS |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AXIS Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AXIS Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AXIS Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AXIS Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AXIS Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AXIS Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AXIS Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AXIS Capital's historical news coverage. AXIS Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.10 and 89.80, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AXIS Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AXIS Capital Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
AXIS Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AXIS Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AXIS Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AXIS Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.35 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
91.23 | 88.45 | 0.34 |
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AXIS Capital Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November AXIS Capital Holdings is traded for 91.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. AXIS is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 88.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 102.27%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.34%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on AXIS Capital is about 993.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 91.26. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.34. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AXIS Capital Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.22. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2024. The firm had 5:1 split on the 12th of September 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out AXIS Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AXIS Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AXIS Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AXIS Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how AXIS Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AXIS Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 1.62 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.1 | 2.89 | (2.50) | 9.67 | |
| ACT | Enact Holdings | 0.36 | 11 per month | 1.39 | (0.09) | 1.57 | (1.93) | 6.63 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | 0.29 | 9 per month | 1.73 | (0.07) | 2.37 | (2.55) | 9.75 | |
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.18) | 7 per month | 2.25 | (0.06) | 2.47 | (2.24) | 11.88 | |
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | (1.03) | 6 per month | 0.87 | 0.1 | 2.32 | (2.12) | 12.74 | |
| MBI | MBIA Inc | (0.07) | 6 per month | 2.40 | 0.22 | 7.12 | (4.02) | 22.10 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.34 | (0.23) | 0.74 | (0.56) | 3.36 | |
| AMBC | Ambac Financial Group | (0.14) | 7 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 3.27 | (2.90) | 16.30 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.06) | 5 per month | 1.02 | 0.06 | 2.46 | (1.95) | 11.24 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | 0.12 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.47 | (5.22) | 31.93 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.49 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.88 | (2.14) | 13.14 | |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | 0.28 | 8 per month | 1.66 | (0.02) | 2.12 | (2.36) | 8.56 |
AXIS Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AXIS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AXIS using various technical indicators. When you analyze AXIS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AXIS Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AXIS Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AXIS Capital Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AXIS Capital based on analysis of AXIS Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AXIS Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AXIS Capital's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0381 | 0.0391 | 0.039 | 0.0265 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.87 | 0.9 | 0.84 | 1.64 |
Story Coverage note for AXIS Capital
The number of cover stories for AXIS Capital depends on current market conditions and AXIS Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AXIS Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AXIS Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AXIS Capital Short Properties
AXIS Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when AXIS Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AXIS Capital Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AXIS Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AXIS Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.3 B |
Additional Tools for AXIS Stock Analysis
When running AXIS Capital's price analysis, check to measure AXIS Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AXIS Capital is operating at the current time. Most of AXIS Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AXIS Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AXIS Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AXIS Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.