Five Star Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| FSBC Stock | USD 32.21 2.12 7.05% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2025 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6025 | Wall Street Target Price 37.625 |
Using Five Star hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five Star Bancorp from the perspective of Five Star response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Five Star using Five Star's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Five using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Five Star's stock price.
Five Star Implied Volatility | 1.04 |
Five Star's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Five Star Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Five Star's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Five Star stock will not fluctuate a lot when Five Star's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Five Star to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Five because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Five Star after-hype prediction price | USD 32.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Five contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Five Star Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.065% per day over the life of the 2025-02-21 option contract. With Five Star trading at USD 32.21, that is roughly USD 0.0209 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Five Star's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Five Star Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Five |
Five Star After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Five Star at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Five Star or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Five Star, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Five Star Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Five Star's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Five Star's historical news coverage. Five Star's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.55 and 37.85, respectively. We have considered Five Star's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Five Star is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Five Star Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Five Star Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five Star is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five Star backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five Star, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 5.65 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.21 | 32.20 | 0.03 |
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Five Star Hype Timeline
Five Star Bancorp is currently traded for 32.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Five is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 32.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Five Star is about 2463.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.15. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Five Star Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2024. The entity had 2521:2500 split on the 14th of July 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Five Star Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Five Star Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Five Star's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Five Star's future price movements. Getting to know how Five Star's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Five Star may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Five Star Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Five Star Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Five Star stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Five Star Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Five Star based on analysis of Five Star hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Five Star's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Five Star's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0328 | 0.0288 | 0.0331 | 0.0315 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.28 | 3.83 | 4.41 | 4.19 |
Story Coverage note for Five Star
The number of cover stories for Five Star depends on current market conditions and Five Star's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Five Star is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Five Star's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Five Star Short Properties
Five Star's future price predictability will typically decrease when Five Star's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Five Star Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Five Star's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Star's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 429.7 M |
Complementary Tools for Five Stock analysis
When running Five Star's price analysis, check to measure Five Star's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Star is operating at the current time. Most of Five Star's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Star's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Star's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Star to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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