Main Street Capital Stock Price Prediction
| MAIN Stock | USD 64.55 0.28 0.44% |
Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9855 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.9497 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.9548 | Wall Street Target Price 63.4286 |
Using Main Street hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Main Street Capital from the perspective of Main Street response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Main Street using Main Street's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Main using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Main Street's stock price.
Main Street Short Interest
An investor who is long Main Street may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Main Street and may potentially protect profits, hedge Main Street with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 60.1401 | Short Percent 0.0705 | Short Ratio 9.96 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.1 M | 50 Day MA 60.475 |
Main Street Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Main Street's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Main. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Main can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Main Street Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Main Street's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Main Street.
Main Street Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
Main Street's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Main Street Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Main Street's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Main Street stock will not fluctuate a lot when Main Street's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Main Street to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Main because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Main Street after-hype prediction price | USD 64.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Main contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Main Street Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Main Street trading at USD 64.55, that is roughly USD 0.008472 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Main Street's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Main Street Capital options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Main Street After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Main Street at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Main Street or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Main Street, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Main Street Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Main Street's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Main Street's historical news coverage. Main Street's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.10 and 65.66, respectively. We have considered Main Street's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Main Street is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Main Street Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Main Street Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Main Street is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Main Street backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Main Street, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.28 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
64.55 | 64.38 | 0.42 |
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Main Street Hype Timeline
Main Street Capital is now traded for 64.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Main is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 120.75%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Main Street is about 2104.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.53. About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.97. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Main Street Capital has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.09. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.04. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Main Street Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Main Street's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Main Street's future price movements. Getting to know how Main Street's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Main Street may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.02 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | 0.10 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.06 | 1.95 | (1.50) | 4.17 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.77 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.13 | 11 per month | 1.63 | 0.06 | 4.67 | (2.76) | 11.08 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.93 | 0.04 | 1.86 | (1.64) | 4.48 | |
| FSK | FS KKR Capital | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.05 | (2.21) | 5.70 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.68 | (0.08) | 1.23 | (1.23) | 3.47 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | (0.16) | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 2.04 | (1.71) | 6.78 | |
| ARCC | Ares Capital | (0.13) | 13 per month | 0.93 | (0.02) | 1.63 | (1.99) | 5.04 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.52 | 0.07 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.10 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.13 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 |
Main Street Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Main price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Main using various technical indicators. When you analyze Main charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Main Street Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Main Street stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Main Street Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Main Street based on analysis of Main Street hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Main Street's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Main Street's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0618 | 0.0556 | 0.0532 | Price To Sales Ratio | 7.16 | 8.23 | 10.21 |
Pair Trading with Main Street
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Main Street position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Main Street will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Main Stock
| 0.62 | RA | Brookfield Real Assets | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | JLEN | JLEN Environmental Assets | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | VELO | Velo3D | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | VRTS | Virtus Investment | PairCorr |
Moving against Main Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Main Street could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Main Street when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Main Street - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Main Street Capital to buy it.
The correlation of Main Street is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Main Street moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Main Street Capital moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Main Street can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Main diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Main Street. Expected growth trajectory for Main significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Main Street data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 3 | Earnings Share 6.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.022 |
Main Street Capital's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Main's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Main Street's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Main Street's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Main Street's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Main Street represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Main Street's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.