Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction
| TOL Stock | USD 144.99 1.92 1.34% |
Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.8633 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.2537 | Wall Street Target Price 154.1333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 4.875 |
Using Toll Brothers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toll Brothers from the perspective of Toll Brothers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toll Brothers using Toll Brothers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toll using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toll Brothers' stock price.
Toll Brothers Short Interest
An investor who is long Toll Brothers may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toll Brothers and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toll Brothers with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 126.0795 | Short Percent 0.0555 | Short Ratio 3.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 138.6576 |
Toll Brothers Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toll Brothers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toll. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toll can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toll Brothers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toll Brothers' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toll Brothers.
Toll Brothers Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Toll Brothers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toll Brothers stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toll Brothers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toll Brothers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toll Brothers' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toll Brothers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toll because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toll Brothers after-hype prediction price | USD 144.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toll contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toll Brothers will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Toll Brothers trading at USD 144.99, that is roughly USD 0.0517 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toll Brothers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toll Brothers options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Toll Brothers After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toll Brothers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toll Brothers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toll Brothers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toll Brothers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toll Brothers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toll Brothers' historical news coverage. Toll Brothers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 143.06 and 146.92, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toll Brothers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toll Brothers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toll Brothers Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toll Brothers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toll Brothers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toll Brothers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.94 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
144.99 | 144.99 | 0.00 |
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Toll Brothers Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Toll Brothers is traded for 144.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Toll is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 104.86%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Toll Brothers is about 2852.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 145.00. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toll Brothers has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.16. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.49. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. Toll Brothers had 2:1 split on the 11th of July 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Toll Brothers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toll Brothers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toll Brothers' future price movements. Getting to know how Toll Brothers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toll Brothers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | (0.09) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.06 | (3.52) | 15.21 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.61 | 12 per month | 1.36 | 0.09 | 3.01 | (2.09) | 7.45 | |
| MGA | Magna International | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 3.67 | (2.32) | 9.62 | |
| H | Hyatt Hotels | (1.81) | 10 per month | 1.61 | 0.02 | 4.14 | (3.01) | 10.45 | |
| CCK | Crown Holdings | 1.10 | 9 per month | 1.55 | 0.01 | 2.35 | (2.36) | 6.71 | |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts Limited | (1.39) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.17 | (3.45) | 10.09 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | (0.09) | 13 per month | 1.36 | 0.15 | 2.60 | (2.74) | 11.58 | |
| SN | SharkNinja | (0.57) | 4 per month | 2.25 | 0.11 | 5.64 | (3.37) | 10.24 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Common | 3.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.68 | (2.15) | 6.97 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | (0.28) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.62 | (2.10) | 6.07 |
Toll Brothers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toll price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toll Brothers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toll Brothers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toll Brothers, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers based on analysis of Toll Brothers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toll Brothers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toll Brothers's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006153 | 0.007268 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.4 | 1.22 |
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Toll Brothers assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 13.49 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.027 |
Investors evaluate Toll Brothers using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Toll Brothers' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Toll Brothers' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Toll Brothers' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.