Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction
| TOL Stock | USD 167.80 10.21 6.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.5984 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.7245 | Wall Street Target Price 157.5953 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 3.31 |
Using Toll Brothers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toll Brothers from the perspective of Toll Brothers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Toll Brothers Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toll Brothers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toll. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toll can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toll Brothers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toll Brothers' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toll Brothers.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toll Brothers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toll because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toll Brothers after-hype prediction price | USD 167.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Toll |
Toll Brothers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toll Brothers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toll Brothers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toll Brothers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toll Brothers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toll Brothers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toll Brothers' historical news coverage. Toll Brothers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 165.60 and 169.38, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toll Brothers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toll Brothers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toll Brothers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toll Brothers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toll Brothers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.90 | 0.33 | 0.87 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
167.80 | 167.49 | 0.18 |
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Toll Brothers Hype Timeline
On the 26th of November Toll Brothers is traded for 167.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.87. Toll is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 167.49. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 159.66%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Toll Brothers is about 60.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 166.93. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Toll Brothers was at this time reported as 73.46. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. Toll Brothers recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of October 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 11th of July 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Toll Brothers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toll Brothers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toll Brothers' future price movements. Getting to know how Toll Brothers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toll Brothers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DHI | DR Horton | (3.44) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.97 | (3.16) | 10.50 | |
| LEN | Lennar | (2.80) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.17 | (3.91) | 8.84 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 1.51 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.05 | (3.31) | 10.30 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | (22.08) | 11 per month | 1.33 | (0.09) | 2.09 | (1.93) | 6.47 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | (3.52) | 9 per month | 1.98 | (0.06) | 2.91 | (3.21) | 11.82 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | 0.59 | 8 per month | 2.10 | 0.01 | 4.14 | (3.93) | 12.19 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | 0.08 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.86 | (5.89) | 16.06 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | 1.74 | 6 per month | 2.39 | (0.02) | 3.69 | (4.24) | 11.78 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (0.20) | 11 per month | 1.68 | 0.01 | 3.10 | (2.82) | 9.89 |
Toll Brothers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toll price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toll Brothers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toll Brothers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toll Brothers, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers based on analysis of Toll Brothers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toll Brothers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toll Brothers's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0177 | 0.0105 | 0.00888 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.49 | 0.9 | 1.26 |
Story Coverage note for Toll Brothers
The number of cover stories for Toll Brothers depends on current market conditions and Toll Brothers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toll Brothers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toll Brothers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toll Brothers Short Properties
Toll Brothers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Toll Brothers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toll Brothers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 14.48 | Revenue Per Share 100.231 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.