United Security Bancshares Stock Price Prediction
| UBFO Stock | USD 10.64 0.21 2.01% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
Using United Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Security Bancshares from the perspective of United Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Security using United Security's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Security's stock price.
United Security Short Interest
An investor who is long United Security may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about United Security and may potentially protect profits, hedge United Security with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.0138 | Short Percent 0.0123 | Short Ratio 5.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 149.5 K | 50 Day MA 9.2998 |
United Security Banc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Security's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Security Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Security's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Security.
United Security Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
United Security's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Security Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Security's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Security stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Security's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in United Security to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying United because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
United Security after-hype prediction price | USD 10.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Security Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0613% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With United Security trading at USD 10.64, that is roughly USD 0.006517 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Security's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Security Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out United Security Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. United Security After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Security's historical news coverage. United Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.13 and 11.87, respectively. We have considered United Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Security is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Security Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Security Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.39 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.64 | 10.50 | 0.10 |
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United Security Hype Timeline
United Security Banc is at this time traded for 10.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. United is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on United Security is about 789.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.69. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United Security Banc last dividend was issued on the 3rd of October 2025. The entity had 101:100 split on the 5th of April 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out United Security Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.United Security Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Security's future price movements. Getting to know how United Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BVFL | BV Financial Common | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.08 | 2.87 | (2.59) | 9.13 | |
| CZWI | Citizens Community Bancorp | 0.12 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.09 | 2.36 | (1.73) | 7.50 | |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp | 0.31 | 6 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 2.54 | (2.05) | 7.48 | |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.87 | 0.1 | 3.03 | (2.03) | 9.11 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | 0.19 | 6 per month | 2.68 | 0.07 | 6.23 | (5.18) | 17.93 | |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of | 0.09 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.09 | 3.26 | (1.72) | 5.97 | |
| INBK | First Internet Bancorp | 0.41 | 8 per month | 2.53 | 0.03 | 4.25 | (4.74) | 15.47 | |
| MRBK | Meridian Bank | 0.29 | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.14 | 4.14 | (2.24) | 9.93 | |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 0.34 | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.01 | 3.70 | (2.31) | 8.84 | |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.14 | 4.49 | (1.80) | 9.61 |
United Security Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About United Security Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of United Security stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as United Security Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of United Security based on analysis of United Security hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to United Security's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to United Security's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0547 | 0.0479 | 0.0596 | 0.0626 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.18 | 2.65 | 2.86 | 3.62 |
Pair Trading with United Security
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if United Security position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in United Security will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with United Stock
| 0.92 | BY | Byline Bancorp | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | SANB | SANTANDER UK 8 | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | WAFD | Washington Federal | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | CFR | CullenFrost Bankers Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
Moving against United Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to United Security could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace United Security when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back United Security - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling United Security Bancshares to buy it.
The correlation of United Security is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as United Security moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if United Security Banc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for United Security can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out United Security Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could United diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Security. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every United Security data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
Investors evaluate United Security Banc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating United Security's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause United Security's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Security's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Security is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, United Security's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.