First Watch Restaurant Stock Market Value

FWRG Stock  USD 16.78  0.18  1.06%   
First Watch's market value is the price at which a share of First Watch trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of First Watch Restaurant investors about its performance. First Watch is trading at 16.78 as of the 23rd of January 2026. This is a 1.06 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 16.78.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First Watch Restaurant and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First Watch over a given investment horizon. Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch.
Symbol

Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.634
Earnings Share
0.08
Revenue Per Share
19.216
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.256
Return On Assets
0.0115
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

First Watch 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Watch's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Watch.
0.00
10/25/2025
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 1 day
01/23/2026
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in First Watch on October 25, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Watch Restaurant or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Watch over 90 days. First Watch is related to or competes with SUPER HI, Cannae Holdings, Biglari Holdings, BJs Restaurants, Sweetgreen, Xpel, and LGI Homes. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name More

First Watch Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Watch's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Watch Restaurant upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

First Watch Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Watch's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Watch's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Watch historical prices to predict the future First Watch's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.8817.0320.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.3919.5422.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
14.3217.4720.62
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.1922.1824.62
Details

First Watch January 23, 2026 Technical Indicators

First Watch Restaurant Backtested Returns

First Watch Restaurant secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0172, which denotes the company had a -0.0172 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Watch Restaurant exposes twenty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Watch's Standard Deviation of 3.06, mean deviation of 2.34, and Variance of 9.37 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.57, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. At this point, First Watch Restaurant has a negative expected return of -0.0541%. Please make sure to confirm First Watch's jensen alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and period momentum indicator , to decide if First Watch Restaurant performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.35  

Below average predictability

First Watch Restaurant has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Watch time series from 25th of October 2025 to 9th of December 2025 and 9th of December 2025 to 23rd of January 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Watch Restaurant price movement. The serial correlation of 0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current First Watch price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.35
Spearman Rank Test-0.02
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.33

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether First Watch Restaurant is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Watch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Watch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch.
You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
First Watch technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of First Watch technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of First Watch trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...