First Watch Restaurant Stock Market Value

FWRG Stock  USD 15.38  0.00  0.00%   
First Watch's market value is the price at which a share of First Watch trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of First Watch Restaurant investors about its performance. First Watch is trading at 15.38 as of the 29th of December 2025. This is a No Change since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 15.38.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First Watch Restaurant and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First Watch over a given investment horizon. Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch.
Symbol

First Watch Restaurant Price To Book Ratio

Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.634
Earnings Share
0.08
Revenue Per Share
19.216
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.256
Return On Assets
0.0115
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

First Watch 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Watch's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Watch.
0.00
11/29/2025
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
12/29/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in First Watch on November 29, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Watch Restaurant or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Watch over 30 days. First Watch is related to or competes with SUPER HI, Cannae Holdings, Biglari Holdings, BJs Restaurants, Sweetgreen, Xpel, and LGI Homes. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name More

First Watch Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Watch's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Watch Restaurant upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

First Watch Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Watch's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Watch's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Watch historical prices to predict the future First Watch's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.6315.9019.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3219.3822.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.8315.1018.36
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.3522.3624.82
Details

First Watch Restaurant Backtested Returns

At this point, First Watch is not too volatile. First Watch Restaurant secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.024, which denotes the company had a 0.024 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for First Watch Restaurant, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Watch's Coefficient Of Variation of 4871.96, downside deviation of 2.65, and Mean Deviation of 2.42 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0786%. First Watch has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.77, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. First Watch Restaurant right now shows a risk of 3.27%. Please confirm First Watch Restaurant value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if First Watch Restaurant will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.88  

Very good predictability

First Watch Restaurant has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Watch time series from 29th of November 2025 to 14th of December 2025 and 14th of December 2025 to 29th of December 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Watch Restaurant price movement. The serial correlation of 0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current First Watch price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.88
Spearman Rank Test0.76
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.29

First Watch Restaurant lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is First Watch stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Watch's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Watch returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Watch has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

First Watch regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Watch stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Watch stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Watch stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

First Watch Lagged Returns

When evaluating First Watch's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Watch stock have on its future price. First Watch autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Watch autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Watch stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Watch Restaurant.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether First Watch Restaurant is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Watch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Watch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
First Watch technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of First Watch technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of First Watch trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...