First Watch Restaurant Stock Market Value
| FWRG Stock | USD 20.98 0.23 1.08% |
| Symbol | First |
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Watch 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Watch's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Watch.
| 01/03/2025 |
| 02/02/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Watch on January 3, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Watch Restaurant or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Watch over 30 days. First Watch is related to or competes with Dine Brands, Bloomin Brands, BJs Restaurants, Cheesecake Factory, Brinker International, Dennys Corp, and Papa Johns. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name More
First Watch Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Watch's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Watch Restaurant upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0912 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.73) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.48 |
First Watch Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Watch's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Watch's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Watch historical prices to predict the future First Watch's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1041 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2757 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0991 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1087 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2775 |
First Watch Restaurant Backtested Returns
First Watch appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. First Watch Restaurant secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which denotes the company had a 0.12 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Watch Restaurant, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First Watch's Coefficient Of Variation of 867.3, downside deviation of 2.74, and Mean Deviation of 2.33 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First Watch holds a performance score of 9. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.32, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. Please check First Watch's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether First Watch's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.73 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
First Watch Restaurant has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Watch time series from 3rd of January 2025 to 18th of January 2025 and 18th of January 2025 to 2nd of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Watch Restaurant price movement. The serial correlation of -0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current First Watch price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.67 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.98 |
First Watch Restaurant lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Watch stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Watch's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Watch returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Watch has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Watch regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Watch stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Watch stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Watch stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Watch Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Watch's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Watch stock have on its future price. First Watch autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Watch autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Watch stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Watch Restaurant.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
First Watch technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.