First National Corp Stock Performance

FXNC Stock  USD 25.76  0.23  0.90%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, First National holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.78, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First National is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First National's semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether First National's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in First National Corp are ranked lower than 14 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather unsteady basic indicators, First National exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
 
First National dividend paid on 12th of December 2025
12/12/2025
 
First National dividend paid on 15th of December 2025
12/15/2025
Begin Period Cash Flow87.2 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities136.8 M

First National Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,236  in First National Corp on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  340.00  from holding First National Corp or generate 15.21% return on investment over 90 days. First National Corp is currently generating 0.2414% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.3637% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 12% of stocks are less volatile than First, and 96% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First National is expected to generate 1.82 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.82 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.18 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

First National Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 25.76 90 days 25.76 
about 18.7
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First National to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 18.7 (This First National Corp probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First National has a beta of 0.78. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First National Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First National Corp has an alpha of 0.1916, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First National Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First National Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.4025.7627.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.1829.5730.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.0326.3927.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.4625.4526.43
Details

First National Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First National Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.19
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.78
σ
Overall volatility
1.17
Ir
Information ratio 0.13

First National Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First National Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First National Corp currently holds about 75.78 M in cash with (22.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.1.
Roughly 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of December 2025 First National paid $ 0.17 per share dividend to its current shareholders

First National Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingM
Cash And Short Term Investments164.5 M

First National Fundamentals Growth

First Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First National, and First National fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Stock performance.

About First National Performance

By analyzing First National's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into First National's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if First National has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if First National has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, individuals, estates, local governmental entities, and non-profit organizations in Virginia. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Strasburg, Virginia. First Natl is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.

Things to note about First National Corp performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about First National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for First National Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First National Corp currently holds about 75.78 M in cash with (22.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.1.
Roughly 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of December 2025 First National paid $ 0.17 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Evaluating First National's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate First National's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing First National's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether First National's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining First National's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating First National's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of First National's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of First National's stock. These opinions can provide insight into First National's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating First National's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact First National's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running First National's price analysis, check to measure First National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First National is operating at the current time. Most of First National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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