First National Corp Stock Price Patterns

FXNC Stock  USD 28.21  0.56  2.03%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of First National's stock price is about 62. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 62

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First National's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First National Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting First National's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.725
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.58
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.38
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.51
Wall Street Target Price
28
Using First National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First National Corp from the perspective of First National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

First National after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.06  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out First National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.3929.9131.31
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.4828.0031.08
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.560.580.61
Details

First National After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First National's historical news coverage. First National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.66 and 29.46, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.21
28.06
After-hype Price
29.46
Upside
First National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First National Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

First National Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
1.40
  0.15 
  0.10 
8 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.21
28.06
0.53 
291.67  
Notes

First National Hype Timeline

First National Corp is currently traded for 28.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. First is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on First National is about 429.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.11. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.34. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First National Corp last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out First National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

First National Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First National's future price movements. Getting to know how First National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FRAFFranklin Financial Services(1.82)9 per month 2.45  0.01  3.20 (3.34) 15.30 
CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp(0.19)8 per month 1.90  0.1  3.33 (3.21) 10.70 
FSFGFirst Savings Financial 0.34 7 per month 1.29  0.06  2.88 (1.96) 9.58 
EFSIEagle Financial Services 0.00 0 per month 0.85  0.05  2.35 (1.51) 5.82 
VABKVirginia National Bankshares(0.51)5 per month 1.67 (0.01) 3.96 (2.58) 10.22 
FCCOFirst Community 0.51 9 per month 0.94  0.07  2.58 (1.50) 6.70 
AVBHAvidbank Holdings Common 0.00 0 per month 0.64  0.15  2.67 (1.44) 6.55 
NKSHNational Bankshares(1.31)6 per month 0.83  0.21  4.17 (1.55) 6.82 
OPBKOP Bancorp(0.11)8 per month 1.65  0.03  3.38 (3.25) 11.38 
FUNCFirst United(0.17)9 per month 1.78  0.02  3.21 (2.28) 11.47 

First National Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About First National Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of First National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First National Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First National based on analysis of First National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First National's related companies.
 2023 2024 2026 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02640.02520.0338
Price To Sales Ratio2.011.822.09

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When running First National's price analysis, check to measure First National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First National is operating at the current time. Most of First National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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