Graham Stock Price Prediction
| GHM Stock | USD 37.51 0.20 0.53% |
Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 8.143 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.105 | Wall Street Target Price 52.6667 |
Using Graham hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graham from the perspective of Graham response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Graham using Graham's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Graham using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Graham's stock price.
Graham Short Interest
An investor who is long Graham may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Graham and may potentially protect profits, hedge Graham with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.0686 | Short Percent 0.0137 | Short Ratio 1.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 100 K | 50 Day MA 43.767 |
Graham Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graham's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graham. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graham can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graham. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graham's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graham.
Graham Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Graham's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Graham stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Graham's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Graham stock will not fluctuate a lot when Graham's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Graham to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Graham because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Graham after-hype prediction price | USD 37.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Graham contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Graham will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Graham trading at USD 37.51, that is roughly USD 0.0241 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Graham's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Graham options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Graham |
Graham After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graham at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graham or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graham, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graham Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graham's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graham's historical news coverage. Graham's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.84 and 41.04, respectively. We have considered Graham's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graham is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graham is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graham Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graham is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graham backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graham, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.60 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.51 | 37.44 | 0.19 |
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Graham Hype Timeline
On the 16th of February 2025 Graham is traded for 37.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Graham is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 37.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Graham is about 497.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.56. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Graham was currently reported as 10.51. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.77. Graham last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2021. The entity had 2:1 split on the 7th of October 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Graham Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Graham Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graham's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graham's future price movements. Getting to know how Graham's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graham may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LXFR | Luxfer Holdings PLC | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.16 | (0) | 3.09 | (3.45) | 8.04 | |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.97 | (2.90) | 5.93 | |
| KAI | Kadant Inc | 1.96 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.63 | (3.18) | 8.61 | |
| OFLX | Omega Flex | 0.84 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.92 | (3.06) | 9.62 | |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies | 1.23 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.06 | (2.76) | 9.27 | |
| NPO | Enpro Industries | 1.11 | 7 per month | 1.61 | 0.16 | 2.55 | (2.11) | 9.38 | |
| HURC | Hurco Companies | 0.75 | 5 per month | 2.35 | 0.02 | 3.11 | (3.55) | 14.38 | |
| GRC | Gorman Rupp | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.09 | (2.53) | 7.48 |
Graham Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graham price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graham using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graham charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Graham Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Graham stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Graham, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Graham based on analysis of Graham hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Graham's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Graham's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0196 | 0.0177 | 0.0107 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.23 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
Story Coverage note for Graham
The number of cover stories for Graham depends on current market conditions and Graham's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graham is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graham's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Graham Short Properties
Graham's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graham's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graham often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graham's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graham's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.9 M |
Check out Graham Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Graham Stock, please use our How to Invest in Graham guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graham. If investors know Graham will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graham listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 8.143 | Earnings Share 0.83 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Graham is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graham that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graham's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graham's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graham's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graham's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graham's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graham is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graham's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.