First Merchants Stock Volatility
| FRMEP Stock | USD 25.35 0.21 0.82% |
Currently, First Merchants is very steady. First Merchants secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0857, which denotes the company had a 0.0857% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for First Merchants, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Merchants' Semi Deviation of 0.3762, coefficient of variation of 1150.58, and Standard Deviation of 0.578 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0499%. Key indicators related to First Merchants' volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
First Merchants Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of First daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use First's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of First Merchants volatility.
First |
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, First Merchants' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to First Merchants' managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
First Merchants Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which First Merchants stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with First Merchants' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of First Merchants' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of First Merchants' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures First Merchants' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict First Merchants' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for First Merchants' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on First Merchants' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. First Merchants Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
First Merchants Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Merchants has a beta that is very close to zero . This usually indicates the returns on DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL and First Merchants do not appear to be sensible.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to First Merchants or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that First Merchants' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
It does not look like First Merchants' alpha can have any bearing on the current valuation. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a First Merchants Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.First Merchants Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of First Merchants is 1166.94. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.34 and standard deviation of 0.58. The mean deviation of First Merchants is currently at 0.33. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.76
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.00 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
First Merchants Stock Return Volatility
First Merchants historical daily return volatility represents how much of First Merchants stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The enterprise shows 0.5819% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7608% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About First Merchants Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of First Merchants or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of First Merchants may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to First's beta indicator, it measures the risk of First Merchants and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of First Merchants fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 7.4 M | 7.8 M | |
| Market Cap | 2.2 B | 2.3 B |
First Merchants' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on First Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much First Merchants' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize First Merchants' volatility to invest better
Higher First Merchants' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of First Merchants stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. First Merchants stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of First Merchants investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in First Merchants' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of First Merchants' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
First Merchants Investment Opportunity
Dow Jones Industrial has a standard deviation of returns of 0.76 and is 1.31 times more volatile than First Merchants. 5 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than First Merchants. You can use First Merchants to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of First Merchants to be traded at $24.84 in 90 days.First Merchants Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Merchants' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of First Merchants stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0631 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.3388 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3762 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.7785 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1150.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.578 | |||
| Variance | 0.3341 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
First Merchants Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against First Merchants as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. First Merchants' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, First Merchants' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to First Merchants.
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.