Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Volatility
| HTBK Stock | USD 10.65 0.06 0.57% |
As of now, Heritage Stock is not too volatile. Heritage Commerce Corp holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0252, which attests that the entity had a 0.0252 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Heritage Commerce Corp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Heritage Commerce's Downside Deviation of 1.37, market risk adjusted performance of 0.0765, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0317 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0369%. Key indicators related to Heritage Commerce's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Heritage Commerce Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Heritage daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Heritage's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Heritage Commerce volatility.
Heritage |
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Heritage Commerce's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Heritage Commerce's managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Heritage Commerce at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Heritage stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes.
Moving together with Heritage Stock
| 0.8 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | BY | Byline Bancorp | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | NU | Nu Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | RF | Regions Financial Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | VABK | Virginia National | PairCorr |
Moving against Heritage Stock
Heritage Commerce Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Heritage Commerce's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Heritage stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Heritage stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Heritage Commerce's beta of 0.69 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Heritage Commerce stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Heritage Commerce Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.14 and kurtosis of 1.53. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Heritage Commerce Corp Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Heritage Commerce correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Heritage Beta |
Heritage standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.46 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Heritage Commerce's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Heritage Commerce's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in heritage stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Heritage Commerce.
Using Heritage Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Heritage Commerce grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Heritage Commerce at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Heritage Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Heritage Commerce's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Heritage Commerce will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Heritage Commerce's PUT expiring on 2025-03-21
Profit |
| Heritage Commerce Price At Expiration |
Current Heritage Commerce Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | HTBK250321P00010000 | -0.308929 | 0.249991 | 16 | 2025-03-21 | 0.0 - 0.6 | 0.0 | View |
Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Heritage Commerce stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Heritage Commerce's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Heritage Commerce's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Heritage Commerce's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Heritage Commerce's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Heritage Commerce's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Heritage Commerce's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Heritage Commerce's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Heritage Commerce Corp Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Heritage Commerce Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Heritage Commerce has a beta of 0.687 . This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Heritage Commerce average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heritage Commerce Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Commerce or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Commerce's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Heritage Commerce Corp has an alpha of 0.0449, implying that it can generate a 0.0449 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Heritage Commerce Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Heritage Commerce Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Heritage Commerce is 3961.31. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 2.14 and standard deviation of 1.46. The mean deviation of Heritage Commerce Corp is currently at 1.05. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.71
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Heritage Commerce Stock Return Volatility
Heritage Commerce historical daily return volatility represents how much of Heritage Commerce stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 1.4612% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.713% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Heritage Commerce Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Heritage Commerce or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Heritage Commerce may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Heritage's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Heritage Commerce and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Heritage Commerce fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 76.3 M | 80.1 M | |
| Market Cap | 574.7 M | 603.5 M |
Heritage Commerce's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Heritage Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Heritage Commerce's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Heritage Commerce's volatility to invest better
Higher Heritage Commerce's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Heritage Commerce Corp stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Heritage Commerce Corp stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Heritage Commerce Corp investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Heritage Commerce's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Heritage Commerce's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Heritage Commerce Investment Opportunity
Heritage Commerce Corp has a volatility of 1.46 and is 2.06 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 13 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Heritage Commerce. You can use Heritage Commerce Corp to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a moderate upward volatility. Check odds of Heritage Commerce to be traded at $11.72 in 90 days.Weak diversification
The correlation between Heritage Commerce Corp and DJI is 0.33 (i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Heritage Commerce Corp and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Heritage Commerce Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Commerce's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Heritage Commerce stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0317 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0765 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 2673.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Heritage Commerce Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Heritage Commerce as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Heritage Commerce's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Heritage Commerce's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Heritage Commerce Corp.
When determining whether Heritage Commerce Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Heritage Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Heritage Commerce Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Heritage Commerce Corp Stock: Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Heritage Commerce Corp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.