Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Market Outlook
| HTBK Stock | USD 13.30 0.07 0.53% |
About 52% of Heritage Commerce's institutional investors are presently thinking to get in. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading Heritage Commerce Corp stock suggests that some investors are interested at this time. Heritage Commerce's investing sentiment shows overall attitude of investors towards Heritage Commerce Corp.
Comfort Level 52
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Heritage Commerce's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Heritage Commerce Corp.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentNeutral | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Heritage Commerce Corp is 'Strong Buy'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Heritage Commerce's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Execute Heritage Commerce Advice
The Heritage recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Heritage Commerce Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Heritage Commerce Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Heritage Commerce's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Solid | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Heritage Commerce Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1813, Jensen Alpha of 0.2798, Total Risk Alpha of 0.2219, Sortino Ratio of 0.2005 and Treynor Ratio of 0.3325Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Heritage Commerce and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Heritage Commerce Corp is not overpriced, please check out all Heritage Commerce fundamentals, including its debt to equity, beta, and the relationship between the net income and earnings per share . Given that Heritage Commerce Corp has a number of shares shorted of 1.2 M, we strongly advise you to confirm Heritage Commerce Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Heritage Commerce Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Heritage Bank of Commerce Named One of Forbes 2026 Best Banks in America |
Heritage Commerce Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Heritage Commerce's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Heritage Commerce daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Heritage Commerce Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Heritage Commerce returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Heritage Commerce.
| Mean Return | 0.35 | Value At Risk | -1.61 | Potential Upside | 2.87 | Standard Deviation | 1.61 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Heritage Commerce historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Heritage Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 1.1 M | Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc | 2025-06-30 | 1.1 M | American Century Companies Inc | 2025-06-30 | 1.1 M | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 868.9 K | Alti Global Inc | 2025-06-30 | 656.6 K | Rhino Investment Partners, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 612.2 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2025-06-30 | 585.6 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 505.7 K | Two Sigma Advisers, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 502.1 K | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 7.9 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 3.6 M |
Heritage Commerce Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 175.1M | (999.6M) | 101.5M | 560.0M | 644.0M | 676.2M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 56.6M | 69.1M | 71.3M | 37.3M | 42.9M | 27.1M | |
| Depreciation | 4.1M | 3.8M | 3.5M | 3.5M | 4.1M | 2.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (1.3M) | (2.5M) | (5.8M) | (2.8M) | (2.5M) | (2.4M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 252K | 783K | 1.7M | 1.6M | 1.5M | 735.4K | |
| Net Income | 47.7M | 66.6M | 64.4M | 40.5M | 46.6M | 48.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.3B | 306.6M | 408.1M | 968.1M | 1.1B | 1.2B | |
| Change To Inventory | 6.6M | 1.1M | 2.1M | (6.1M) | (5.5M) | (5.2M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 31.3M | 31.5M | 31.7M | 31.9M | 36.6M | 38.5M | |
| Investments | (293.3M) | (483.9M) | 70.2M | 110.6M | 127.2M | 133.6M | |
| Change Receivables | 8.4M | 8.1M | 6.1M | 978K | 1.1M | 1.1M | |
| Change To Netincome | 985K | 11.3M | (5.1M) | (1.1M) | (1.0M) | (968.7K) |
Heritage Commerce Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Commerce or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Commerce's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Heritage Commerce Volatility Alert
Heritage Commerce Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.45 and kurtosis of 1.87. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Heritage Commerce Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Heritage Commerce's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Heritage Commerce's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Heritage Commerce and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Heritage Commerce or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Heritage Commerce to competition |
| Fundamentals | Heritage Commerce | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0684 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0084 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.24 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.41 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 834.33 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.56 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.00 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 83.80 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.2 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.19 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.16 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 4.18 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 266.14 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 195.65 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 71.21 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 40.53 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 876.59 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 14.45 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 39.8 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.05 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 11.55 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 38.97 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.58 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.78 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.88 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 14.75 | |
| Number Of Employees | 350 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.78 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 818.74 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.76 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 203.68 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.04 % | |
| Five Year Return | 4.30 % |
Note: Acquisition by Deborah Reuter of 3526 shares of Heritage Commerce subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Heritage Commerce Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Heritage . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Heritage Commerce Target Price Consensus
Heritage target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Heritage Commerce's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 6 | Strong Buy |
Most Heritage analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Heritage stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Heritage Commerce Corp, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationHeritage Commerce Target Price Projection
Heritage Commerce's current and average target prices are 13.30 and 14.75, respectively. The current price of Heritage Commerce is the price at which Heritage Commerce Corp is currently trading. On the other hand, Heritage Commerce's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
Heritage Commerce Market Quote on 15th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Heritage Commerce Target Price
Heritage Commerce Analyst Ratings
Heritage Commerce's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Heritage Commerce stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Heritage Commerce's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Heritage Commerce's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Heritage Commerce Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Heritage Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Heritage Commerce in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Companies involved in publishing of books, newspapers, periodicals and other mass publications. The Books theme has 45 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Books Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. Market participants price Heritage higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Heritage Commerce assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.452 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.177 |
Heritage Commerce Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Heritage's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Heritage Commerce's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Heritage Commerce's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.