Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| HTBK Stock | USD 10.71 0.19 1.81% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your below-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Heritage Commerce Corp is 'Cautious Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Heritage Commerce's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Heritage and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Heritage Commerce Corp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.
Heritage |
Execute Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
The Heritage recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Heritage Commerce Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Heritage Commerce Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Heritage Commerce's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Insignificant | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Heritage Commerce Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Heritage Commerce has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 21st of November 2024 Heritage Commerce paid $ 0.13 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Sa Thomas A of 37664 shares of Heritage Commerce subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Heritage Commerce Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Heritage Commerce's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Heritage Commerce daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Heritage Commerce Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Heritage Commerce returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Heritage Commerce.
| Mean Return | 0.17 | Value At Risk | -2.24 | Potential Upside | 3.53 | Standard Deviation | 2.28 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Heritage Commerce historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Heritage Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-06-30 | 998.6 K | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2024-06-30 | 932.7 K | Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 751.7 K | Alti Global Inc | 2024-06-30 | 648.3 K | Endeavour Capital Advisors Inc | 2024-09-30 | 621.7 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 584 K | Two Sigma Advisers, Llc | 2024-06-30 | 551.2 K | Aqr Capital Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 544.5 K | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2024-06-30 | 507.7 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 8.3 M | Fj Capital Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 3.6 M |
Heritage Commerce Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 292.8M | 673.7M | 175.1M | (999.6M) | 101.5M | 106.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 50.1M | 54.9M | 56.6M | 69.1M | 71.3M | 74.9M | |
| Depreciation | 3.6M | 4.7M | 4.1M | 3.8M | 3.5M | 2.1M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 373K | (1.5M) | (1.3M) | (2.5M) | (5.8M) | (5.5M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 203K | 3.2M | 252K | 783K | 1.7M | 1.8M | |
| Net Income | 40.5M | 35.3M | 47.7M | 66.6M | 64.4M | 67.7M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 457.4M | 1.1B | 1.3B | 306.6M | 408.1M | 265.1M | |
| Dividends Paid | 22.7M | 31.1M | 31.3M | 31.5M | 31.7M | 33.3M | |
| Investments | 153.5M | 148.4M | (293.3M) | (483.9M) | 70.2M | 73.7M | |
| Change Receivables | 8.4M | 8.1M | 6.1M | 978K | 1.1M | 1.1M | |
| Net Borrowings | (10.1M) | (10.4M) | (328K) | (726K) | (834.9K) | (876.6K) | |
| Change To Netincome | 985K | 11.3M | (5.1M) | (1.1M) | (1.0M) | (968.7K) |
Heritage Commerce Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heritage Commerce or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heritage Commerce's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heritage stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Heritage Commerce Volatility Alert
Heritage Commerce Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of 2.86 and kurtosis of 15.05. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Heritage Commerce's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Heritage Commerce's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Heritage Commerce Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Heritage Commerce's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Heritage Commerce's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Heritage Commerce and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Heritage Commerce or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Heritage Commerce to competition |
| Fundamentals | Heritage Commerce | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0642 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0079 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.26 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.34 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | (239.87 M) | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.3 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.01 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 78.17 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 461.11 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.19 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.94 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 3.81 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 9 K | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 189.22 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 90.42 K | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 64.44 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 876.59 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 14.45 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 39.5 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.05 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 11.18 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 73.01 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.49 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.71 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.88 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 11.5 | |
| Number Of Employees | 353 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.91 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 644.91 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.19 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 179.09 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.05 % | |
| Five Year Return | 4.30 % |
Note: Acquisition by Sa Thomas A of 37664 shares of Heritage Commerce subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Heritage Commerce Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Heritage . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Heritage Commerce Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Heritage Commerce Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Heritage Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Heritage Commerce Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.71 | Revenue Per Share 2.763 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.