Applied Digital Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| APLD Stock | USD 38.07 2.15 5.35% |
Applied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Applied Digital stock prices and determine the direction of Applied Digital's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Digital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Applied Digital's share price is at 56. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied Digital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Applied Digital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Digital from the perspective of Applied Digital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Applied Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 38.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.40. Applied Digital after-hype prediction price | USD 38.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Applied Stock refer to our How to Trade Applied Stock guide.Applied Digital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Digital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Applied Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 38.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 5.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Digital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Digital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Digital | Applied Digital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Digital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Digital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Digital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.11 and 45.03, respectively. We have considered Applied Digital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Digital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Digital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1181 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1629 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.062 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 106.4 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Digital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Digital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Digital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Digital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Digital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Digital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Digital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Digital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Digital's historical news coverage. Applied Digital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.11 and 45.03, respectively. We have considered Applied Digital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Digital is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Digital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Digital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Digital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Digital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Digital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 6.96 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
38.07 | 38.07 | 0.00 |
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Applied Digital Hype Timeline
Applied Digital is presently traded for 38.07. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.22. Applied is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on Applied Digital is about 1516.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.85. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.39. Applied Digital had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:6 split on the 13th of April 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Applied Stock refer to our How to Trade Applied Stock guide.Applied Digital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Digital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Digital's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Digital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Digital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AUR | Aurora Innovation | (2.47) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.32 | (5.16) | 19.18 | |
| EPAM | EPAM Systems | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.54 | 0.18 | 4.35 | (2.88) | 9.27 | |
| JKHY | Jack Henry Associates | 0.73 | 12 per month | 0.84 | 0.17 | 2.26 | (1.90) | 7.13 | |
| DOX | Amdocs | 0.62 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.50 | (1.79) | 8.96 | |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | (1.52) | 11 per month | 3.18 | 0.15 | 8.71 | (6.31) | 25.50 | |
| APPF | Appfolio | 0.32 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.09 | (3.82) | 12.22 | |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan Class A | (2.47) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.59 | (4.54) | 17.57 | |
| OTEX | Open Text Corp | 0.24 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 1.45 | (3.91) | 7.58 | |
| TSEM | Tower Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.21 | 5.57 | (4.00) | 24.44 | |
| CFLT | Confluent | 0.03 | 11 per month | 1.06 | 0.11 | 3.91 | (3.28) | 29.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Digital
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Digital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Digital's price trends.Applied Digital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Digital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Digital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Digital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Digital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Digital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Digital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Digital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Digital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Digital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Digital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Digital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.96 | |||
| Variance | 48.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 37.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Digital
The number of cover stories for Applied Digital depends on current market conditions and Applied Digital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Digital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Digital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Digital Short Properties
Applied Digital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Digital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Digital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Digital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Digital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 113.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Applied Stock refer to our How to Trade Applied Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Applied diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Digital. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Applied Digital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Applied Digital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Digital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Digital's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Applied Digital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Digital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Applied Digital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Applied Digital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Applied Digital's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.