Ast Spacemobile Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASTS Stock | USD 116.37 12.87 12.43% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ast Spacemobile on the next trading day is expected to be 116.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 267.78. Ast Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Ast Spacemobile's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.26) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.01) | Wall Street Target Price 81.6375 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.27) |
Using Ast Spacemobile hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ast Spacemobile from the perspective of Ast Spacemobile response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ast Spacemobile using Ast Spacemobile's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ast using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ast Spacemobile's stock price.
Ast Spacemobile Short Interest
An investor who is long Ast Spacemobile may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ast Spacemobile and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ast Spacemobile with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 52.8198 | Short Percent 0.1783 | Short Ratio 2.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 38.1 M | 50 Day MA 74.0548 |
Ast Spacemobile Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ast Spacemobile's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ast. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ast can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ast Spacemobile. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ast Spacemobile Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Ast Spacemobile's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ast Spacemobile stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ast Spacemobile's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ast Spacemobile stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ast Spacemobile's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ast Spacemobile on the next trading day is expected to be 116.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 267.78. Ast Spacemobile after-hype prediction price | USD 112.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ast Spacemobile to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ast contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ast Spacemobile will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ast Spacemobile trading at USD 116.37, that is roughly USD 0.0735 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ast Spacemobile's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ast Spacemobile options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ast Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ast Spacemobile's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ast Spacemobile's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ast Spacemobile stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ast Spacemobile's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ast Spacemobile's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ast Spacemobile is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ast. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ast Spacemobile Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ast price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ast using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ast charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ast Spacemobile Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ast Spacemobile on the next trading day is expected to be 116.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.46, mean absolute percentage error of 33.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 267.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ast Spacemobile's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ast Spacemobile Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ast Spacemobile | Ast Spacemobile Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ast Spacemobile Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ast Spacemobile's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ast Spacemobile's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.01 and 123.73, respectively. We have considered Ast Spacemobile's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ast Spacemobile stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ast Spacemobile stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7895 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6153 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.463 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0573 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 267.78 |
Predictive Modules for Ast Spacemobile
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ast Spacemobile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ast Spacemobile's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ast Spacemobile After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ast Spacemobile at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ast Spacemobile or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ast Spacemobile, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ast Spacemobile Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ast Spacemobile's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ast Spacemobile's historical news coverage. Ast Spacemobile's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 105.43 and 120.15, respectively. We have considered Ast Spacemobile's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ast Spacemobile is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ast Spacemobile is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ast Spacemobile Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ast Spacemobile is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ast Spacemobile backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ast Spacemobile, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.89 | 7.36 | 3.58 | 0.72 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
116.37 | 112.79 | 3.08 |
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Ast Spacemobile Hype Timeline
Ast Spacemobile is presently traded for 116.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -3.58, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.72. Ast is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 112.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 183.08%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.08%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.89%. The volatility of related hype on Ast Spacemobile is about 905.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.09. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.14. Ast Spacemobile had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ast Spacemobile to cross-verify your projections.Ast Spacemobile Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ast Spacemobile's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ast Spacemobile's future price movements. Getting to know how Ast Spacemobile's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ast Spacemobile may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SATS | EchoStar | 11.22 | 3 per month | 1.60 | 0.25 | 5.98 | (3.35) | 16.91 | |
| CHKP | Check Point Software | 3.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.18 | (2.74) | 9.86 | |
| FIG | Figma Inc | (1.82) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 3.95 | (6.42) | 14.53 | |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | (1.35) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.82 | (10.07) | 24.38 | |
| SSNC | SSC Technologies Holdings | 0.47 | 11 per month | 1.09 | 0.02 | 1.85 | (1.91) | 7.41 | |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV ADR | 0.13 | 6 per month | 3.22 | (0.02) | 5.16 | (4.03) | 16.56 | |
| CDW | CDW Corp | (1.46) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.31 | (3.34) | 10.43 | |
| COHR | Coherent | 0.95 | 7 per month | 3.54 | 0.19 | 6.66 | (5.22) | 28.98 | |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | (0.29) | 10 per month | 2.07 | 0.08 | 4.71 | (4.13) | 16.50 | |
| TOST | Toast Inc | (2.82) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.14 | (4.25) | 16.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ast Spacemobile
For every potential investor in Ast, whether a beginner or expert, Ast Spacemobile's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ast Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ast. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ast Spacemobile's price trends.Ast Spacemobile Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ast Spacemobile stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ast Spacemobile could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ast Spacemobile by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ast Spacemobile Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ast Spacemobile stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ast Spacemobile shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ast Spacemobile stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ast Spacemobile entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ast Spacemobile Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ast Spacemobile's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ast Spacemobile's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ast stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.27 | |||
| Variance | 52.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 46.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 37.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ast Spacemobile
The number of cover stories for Ast Spacemobile depends on current market conditions and Ast Spacemobile's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ast Spacemobile is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ast Spacemobile's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ast Spacemobile Short Properties
Ast Spacemobile's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ast Spacemobile's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ast Spacemobile often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ast Spacemobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ast Spacemobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 154.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 565 M |
Additional Tools for Ast Stock Analysis
When running Ast Spacemobile's price analysis, check to measure Ast Spacemobile's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ast Spacemobile is operating at the current time. Most of Ast Spacemobile's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ast Spacemobile's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ast Spacemobile's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ast Spacemobile to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.