Aurora Innovation Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AUR Stock | USD 3.90 0.27 6.47% |
Aurora Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aurora Innovation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aurora Innovation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aurora Innovation fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Aurora Innovation's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.46) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.47) | Wall Street Target Price 9.7878 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.91) |
Using Aurora Innovation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurora Innovation from the perspective of Aurora Innovation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aurora Innovation using Aurora Innovation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aurora using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aurora Innovation's stock price.
Aurora Innovation Short Interest
An investor who is long Aurora Innovation may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aurora Innovation and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aurora Innovation with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.4139 | Short Percent 0.1385 | Short Ratio 8.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 144 M | 50 Day MA 4.2914 |
Aurora Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurora Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 3.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.88.Aurora Innovation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aurora Innovation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aurora. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aurora can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aurora Innovation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aurora Innovation's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aurora Innovation.
Aurora Innovation Implied Volatility | 1.3 |
Aurora Innovation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aurora Innovation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aurora Innovation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aurora Innovation stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aurora Innovation's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurora Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 3.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.88.
Aurora Innovation after-hype prediction price | USD 4.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Innovation to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aurora contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aurora Innovation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0813% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Aurora Innovation trading at USD 3.9, that is roughly USD 0.003169 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aurora Innovation's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aurora Innovation options at the current volatility level of 1.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Aurora Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aurora Innovation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aurora Innovation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aurora Innovation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aurora Innovation's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aurora Innovation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aurora Innovation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aurora. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aurora Innovation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurora price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurora using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurora charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurora Innovation Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurora Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 3.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurora Innovation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurora Innovation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurora Innovation | Aurora Innovation Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aurora Innovation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurora Innovation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurora Innovation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.35 and 7.45, respectively. We have considered Aurora Innovation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurora Innovation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurora Innovation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5271 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.007 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.88 |
Predictive Modules for Aurora Innovation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Innovation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Innovation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurora Innovation After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurora Innovation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurora Innovation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurora Innovation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurora Innovation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurora Innovation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurora Innovation's historical news coverage. Aurora Innovation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.64 and 7.70, respectively. We have considered Aurora Innovation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurora Innovation is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurora Innovation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurora Innovation Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurora Innovation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurora Innovation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurora Innovation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.90 | 4.17 | 0.00 |
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Aurora Innovation Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Aurora Innovation is traded for 3.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aurora is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aurora Innovation is about 119.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.90. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Aurora Innovation was presently reported as 1.19. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.45. Aurora Innovation had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Innovation to cross-verify your projections.Aurora Innovation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurora Innovation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurora Innovation's future price movements. Getting to know how Aurora Innovation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurora Innovation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APLD | Applied Digital | (1.54) | 18 per month | 5.89 | 0.04 | 14.29 | (9.43) | 30.32 | |
| EPAM | EPAM Systems | 3.67 | 10 per month | 2.75 | 0.08 | 4.35 | (2.97) | 18.57 | |
| JKHY | Jack Henry Associates | (0.18) | 12 per month | 1.50 | 0.11 | 2.39 | (1.97) | 12.13 | |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan Class A | 0.62 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.59 | (4.97) | 21.98 | |
| OTEX | Open Text Corp | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.41) | 1.45 | (3.92) | 8.74 | |
| MKSI | MKS Instruments | 10.22 | 11 per month | 2.41 | 0.21 | 5.36 | (4.83) | 17.56 | |
| DOX | Amdocs | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.50 | (1.86) | 10.32 | |
| ESTC | Elastic NV | (1.57) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.82 | (7.02) | 18.64 | |
| IDCC | InterDigital | 4.37 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.47 | (4.57) | 17.55 | |
| CACI | CACI International | 14.39 | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.04 | 3.62 | (2.22) | 8.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aurora Innovation
For every potential investor in Aurora, whether a beginner or expert, Aurora Innovation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurora Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurora. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurora Innovation's price trends.Aurora Innovation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurora Innovation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurora Innovation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurora Innovation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurora Innovation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurora Innovation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurora Innovation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurora Innovation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurora Innovation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) |
Aurora Innovation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurora Innovation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurora Innovation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurora stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.75 | |||
| Variance | 14.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aurora Innovation
The number of cover stories for Aurora Innovation depends on current market conditions and Aurora Innovation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurora Innovation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurora Innovation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aurora Innovation Short Properties
Aurora Innovation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurora Innovation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurora Innovation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurora Innovation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Innovation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for Aurora Stock Analysis
When running Aurora Innovation's price analysis, check to measure Aurora Innovation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurora Innovation is operating at the current time. Most of Aurora Innovation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurora Innovation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurora Innovation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurora Innovation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.