American States Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AWR Stock | USD 75.56 1.74 2.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American States Water on the next trading day is expected to be 75.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.65. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although American States' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American States' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American States fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of American States' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.118 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.71 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.32 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.49 | Wall Street Target Price 81 |
Using American States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American States Water from the perspective of American States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American States using American States' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American States' stock price.
American States Short Interest
An investor who is long American States may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American States and may potentially protect profits, hedge American States with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 75.3891 | Short Percent 0.029 | Short Ratio 3.12 | Shares Short Prior Month 792.5 K | 50 Day MA 73.4424 |
American States Water Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American States' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American States Water. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American States' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American States.
American States Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
American States' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American States Water stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American States' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American States stock will not fluctuate a lot when American States' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American States Water on the next trading day is expected to be 75.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.65. American States after-hype prediction price | USD 76.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American States to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American States' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American States' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American States stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American States' open interest, investors have to compare it to American States' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American States is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American States Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American States Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the American States' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 20.2 M | Current Value 26.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 15.5 M |
American States Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American States Water on the next trading day is expected to be 75.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American States Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American States | American States Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American States Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American States' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American States' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.49 and 76.74, respectively. We have considered American States' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American States stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American States stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2061 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8467 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.6489 |
Predictive Modules for American States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American States Water. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American States
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American States' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American States' price trends.American States Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American States stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American States could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American States by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American States Water Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American States' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American States' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American States stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American States shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American States stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American States Water entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American States Risk Indicators
The analysis of American States' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American States' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8331 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with American States
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American States position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American States will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American States could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American States when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American States - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American States Water to buy it.
The correlation of American States is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American States moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American States Water moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American States can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American States' price analysis, check to measure American States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American States is operating at the current time. Most of American States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.