American Axle Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| AXLDelisted Stock | USD 9.00 0.61 7.27% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of American Axle's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Axle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Axle Manufacturing from the perspective of American Axle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of American Axle Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 8.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.25. American Axle after-hype prediction price | USD 8.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
American |
American Axle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Axle 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of American Axle Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 8.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Axle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Axle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Axle | American Axle Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Axle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Axle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.3783 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1039 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.215 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.03 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.255 |
Predictive Modules for American Axle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Axle Manufa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Axle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Axle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Axle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Axle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Axle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Axle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Axle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Axle's historical news coverage. American Axle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.71 and 12.23, respectively. We have considered American Axle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Axle is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Axle Manufa is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Axle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Axle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Axle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Axle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 3.26 | 0.03 | 0.51 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.00 | 8.97 | 0.33 |
|
American Axle Hype Timeline
On the 15th of February 2026 American Axle Manufa is traded for 9.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.51. American is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on American Axle is about 490.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.51. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of American Axle was presently reported as 6.05. The company last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2008. American Axle Manufa had 117:1000 split on the 5th of October 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in median.American Axle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Axle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Axle's future price movements. Getting to know how American Axle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Axle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 1.71 | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.12 | 3.87 | (1.91) | 7.53 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.22) | 6 per month | 0.63 | 0.28 | 2.87 | (1.33) | 7.23 | |
| SES | SES AI Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.90 | (10.57) | 27.52 | |
| ECX | ECARX Holdings Class | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.25 | (8.29) | 21.25 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | 0.25 | 13 per month | 1.81 | 0.06 | 4.09 | (2.81) | 13.27 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | (0.36) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.60 | (3.44) | 10.64 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 10 per month | 6.50 | 0.03 | 16.00 | (9.71) | 48.05 | |
| CPS | Cooper Stnd | (0.06) | 11 per month | 2.02 | 0.15 | 6.66 | (4.58) | 13.59 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 0.50 | 6 per month | 1.42 | 0.21 | 3.97 | (2.05) | 11.58 | |
| CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old | 1.93 | 12 per month | 3.10 | 0.03 | 7.62 | (5.07) | 13.74 |
American Axle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Axle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Axle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Axle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Axle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Axle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Axle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Axle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Axle Manufacturing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Axle Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Axle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Axle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Variance | 11.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Axle
The number of cover stories for American Axle depends on current market conditions and American Axle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Axle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Axle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
American Axle Short Properties
American Axle's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Axle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Axle Manufacturing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Axle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Axle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 552.9 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in median. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Other Consideration for investing in American Stock
If you are still planning to invest in American Axle Manufa check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the American Axle's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets |