AXIS Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AXS Stock | USD 102.07 0.88 0.85% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AXIS Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 102.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.74. AXIS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of AXIS Capital's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.833 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9191 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.8218 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.2368 | Wall Street Target Price 120.9091 |
Using AXIS Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AXIS Capital Holdings from the perspective of AXIS Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AXIS Capital using AXIS Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AXIS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AXIS Capital's stock price.
AXIS Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long AXIS Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AXIS Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge AXIS Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 98.7729 | Short Percent 0.0117 | Short Ratio 1.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 843.6 K | 50 Day MA 102.924 |
AXIS Capital Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AXIS Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AXIS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AXIS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AXIS Capital Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
AXIS Capital Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
AXIS Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AXIS Capital Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AXIS Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AXIS Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when AXIS Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AXIS Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 102.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.74. AXIS Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 101.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AXIS Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AXIS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AXIS Capital Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AXIS Capital trading at USD 102.07, that is roughly USD 0.03 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AXIS Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AXIS Capital Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AXIS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AXIS Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AXIS Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AXIS Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AXIS Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to AXIS Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AXIS Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AXIS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AXIS Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AXIS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AXIS using various technical indicators. When you analyze AXIS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AXIS Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AXIS Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 102.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 2.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AXIS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AXIS Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AXIS Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AXIS Capital | AXIS Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AXIS Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AXIS Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AXIS Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 100.62 and 103.52, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AXIS Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AXIS Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.981 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.187 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0623 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.74 |
Predictive Modules for AXIS Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AXIS Capital Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AXIS Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AXIS Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AXIS Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AXIS Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AXIS Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AXIS Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AXIS Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AXIS Capital's historical news coverage. AXIS Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.09 and 102.99, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AXIS Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AXIS Capital Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
AXIS Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AXIS Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AXIS Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AXIS Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.45 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
102.07 | 101.54 | 0.13 |
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AXIS Capital Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January AXIS Capital Holdings is traded for 102.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.27. AXIS is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 101.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on AXIS Capital is about 109.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 101.80. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.36. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AXIS Capital Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.08. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 5:1 split on the 12th of September 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AXIS Capital to cross-verify your projections.AXIS Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AXIS Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AXIS Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how AXIS Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AXIS Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group | 1.24 | 11 per month | 0.86 | 0 | 1.82 | (1.42) | 4.71 | |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance | (0.47) | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.07) | 1.84 | (2.03) | 6.34 | |
| RNR | Renaissancere Holdings | (7.80) | 10 per month | 1.27 | 0.02 | 2.58 | (2.01) | 10.07 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 0.54 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.38 | (2.72) | 6.59 | |
| ALL | The Allstate | (2.67) | 26 per month | 1.36 | (0.07) | 2.10 | (1.99) | 8.07 | |
| LNC | Lincoln National | (0.32) | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.02 | 2.74 | (3.34) | 8.21 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.54 | 0.04 | 4.60 | (3.05) | 10.92 | |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings | (1.15) | 7 per month | 1.61 | 0.11 | 3.48 | (2.89) | 12.22 | |
| BPOP | Popular | (2.52) | 6 per month | 1.31 | 0.04 | 2.67 | (2.08) | 6.92 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | (0.12) | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 2.40 | (1.77) | 6.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for AXIS Capital
For every potential investor in AXIS, whether a beginner or expert, AXIS Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AXIS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AXIS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AXIS Capital's price trends.AXIS Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AXIS Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AXIS Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AXIS Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AXIS Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AXIS Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AXIS Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AXIS Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AXIS Capital Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12054.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.34) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 102.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 102.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.48) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.88) |
AXIS Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of AXIS Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AXIS Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9809 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AXIS Capital
The number of cover stories for AXIS Capital depends on current market conditions and AXIS Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AXIS Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AXIS Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AXIS Capital Short Properties
AXIS Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when AXIS Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AXIS Capital Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AXIS Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AXIS Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.9 B |
Additional Tools for AXIS Stock Analysis
When running AXIS Capital's price analysis, check to measure AXIS Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AXIS Capital is operating at the current time. Most of AXIS Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AXIS Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AXIS Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AXIS Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.