Choice Hotels Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CHH Stock | USD 107.05 0.64 0.59% |
Choice Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Choice Hotels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Choice Hotels' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.739 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5213 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.9288 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.1282 | Wall Street Target Price 108 |
Using Choice Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Choice Hotels International from the perspective of Choice Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Choice Hotels using Choice Hotels' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Choice using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Choice Hotels' stock price.
Choice Hotels Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Choice Hotels' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Choice. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Choice Hotels stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 112.5745 | Short Percent 0.539 | Short Ratio 7.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 97.6374 |
Choice Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Choice Hotels International on the next trading day is expected to be 107.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.13.Choice Hotels Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Choice Hotels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Choice. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Choice can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Choice Hotels International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Choice Hotels' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Choice Hotels.
Choice Hotels Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Choice Hotels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Choice Hotels International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Choice Hotels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Choice Hotels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Choice Hotels' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Choice Hotels International on the next trading day is expected to be 107.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.13. Choice Hotels after-hype prediction price | USD 107.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Choice Hotels to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Choice contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Choice Hotels International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Choice Hotels trading at USD 107.05, that is roughly USD 0.0515 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Choice Hotels' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Choice Hotels International options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Choice Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Choice Hotels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Choice Hotels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Choice Hotels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Choice Hotels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Choice Hotels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Choice Hotels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Choice. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Choice Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Choice price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Choice using various technical indicators. When you analyze Choice charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Choice Hotels Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Choice Hotels International on the next trading day is expected to be 107.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92, mean absolute percentage error of 6.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Choice Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Choice Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Choice Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Choice Hotels | Choice Hotels Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Choice Hotels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Choice Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Choice Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.05 and 109.69, respectively. We have considered Choice Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Choice Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Choice Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.221 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9175 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.13 |
Predictive Modules for Choice Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Choice Hotels Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Choice Hotels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Choice Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Choice Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Choice Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Choice Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Choice Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Choice Hotels' historical news coverage. Choice Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 105.31 and 109.95, respectively. We have considered Choice Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Choice Hotels is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Choice Hotels Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Choice Hotels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Choice Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Choice Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Choice Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.32 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
107.05 | 107.63 | 0.06 |
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Choice Hotels Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Choice Hotels Intern is traded for 107.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Choice is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 107.63. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Choice Hotels is about 203.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.26. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.44. Choice Hotels Intern recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 24th of October 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Choice Hotels to cross-verify your projections.Choice Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Choice Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Choice Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Choice Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Choice Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JMIA | Jumia Technologies AG | (0.39) | 8 per month | 3.62 | 0.02 | 6.90 | (5.98) | 17.93 | |
| SABR | Sabre Corpo | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.51 | (7.46) | 17.17 | |
| KRUS | Kura Sushi USA | 11.23 | 9 per month | 3.42 | 0.13 | 6.49 | (5.42) | 19.62 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.02 | 3.99 | (3.44) | 10.98 | |
| CSV | Carriage Services | (0.90) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.07 | (1.94) | 5.68 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | 1.25 | 8 per month | 2.61 | 0.04 | 7.08 | (2.90) | 19.78 | |
| MYE | Myers Industries | (0.32) | 6 per month | 0.82 | 0.23 | 2.88 | (1.75) | 7.31 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.21 | 3.22 | (1.61) | 8.83 | |
| CANG | Cango Inc | 0.20 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 10.83 | (7.64) | 25.75 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | 0.79 | 8 per month | 4.77 | 0.01 | 7.93 | (5.13) | 34.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for Choice Hotels
For every potential investor in Choice, whether a beginner or expert, Choice Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Choice Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Choice. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Choice Hotels' price trends.Choice Hotels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Choice Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Choice Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Choice Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Choice Hotels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Choice Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Choice Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Choice Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Choice Hotels International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 107.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 107.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.32) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.64) |
Choice Hotels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Choice Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Choice Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting choice stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Choice Hotels
The number of cover stories for Choice Hotels depends on current market conditions and Choice Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Choice Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Choice Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Choice Hotels Short Properties
Choice Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Choice Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Choice Hotels International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Choice Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Choice Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Choice Hotels to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is there potential for Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines market expansion? Will Choice introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Choice Hotels. Projected growth potential of Choice fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Choice Hotels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.739 | Dividend Share 1.15 | Earnings Share 8.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.085 |
The market value of Choice Hotels Intern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Choice that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Choice Hotels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Choice Hotels' true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Choice Hotels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Choice Hotels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Choice Hotels' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Choice Hotels should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Choice Hotels' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.