Citi Trends Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CTRN Stock | USD 45.61 0.19 0.41% |
Citi Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Citi Trends' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Citi Trends' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citi Trends fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of rsi of Citi Trends' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.875 | Wall Street Target Price 57 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.79) |
Using Citi Trends hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citi Trends from the perspective of Citi Trends response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Citi Trends using Citi Trends' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Citi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Citi Trends' stock price.
Citi Trends Short Interest
An investor who is long Citi Trends may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Citi Trends and may potentially protect profits, hedge Citi Trends with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.5016 | Short Percent 0.0917 | Short Ratio 3.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 539.5 K | 50 Day MA 44.0118 |
Citi Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citi Trends on the next trading day is expected to be 45.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.92.Citi Trends Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Citi Trends' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Citi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Citi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Citi Trends. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Citi Trends' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Citi Trends.
Citi Trends Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Citi Trends' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Citi Trends stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Citi Trends' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Citi Trends stock will not fluctuate a lot when Citi Trends' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citi Trends on the next trading day is expected to be 45.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.92. Citi Trends after-hype prediction price | USD 46.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citi Trends to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Citi contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Citi Trends will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Citi Trends trading at USD 45.61, that is roughly USD 0.0251 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Citi Trends' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Citi Trends options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Citi Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Citi Trends' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Citi Trends' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Citi Trends stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Citi Trends' open interest, investors have to compare it to Citi Trends' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Citi Trends is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Citi. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Citi Trends Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citi Trends Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citi Trends on the next trading day is expected to be 45.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citi Trends' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citi Trends Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Citi Trends | Citi Trends Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Citi Trends Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Citi Trends' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citi Trends' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.72 and 48.61, respectively. We have considered Citi Trends' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citi Trends stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citi Trends stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1931 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0487 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0241 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.9221 |
Predictive Modules for Citi Trends
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citi Trends. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citi Trends After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citi Trends at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citi Trends or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citi Trends, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citi Trends Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citi Trends' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citi Trends' historical news coverage. Citi Trends' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.26 and 49.12, respectively. We have considered Citi Trends' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citi Trends is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citi Trends is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citi Trends Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citi Trends is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citi Trends backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citi Trends, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.94 | 0.64 | 0.11 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.61 | 46.19 | 1.27 |
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Citi Trends Hype Timeline
Citi Trends is currently traded for 45.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.64, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Citi is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 46.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 147.0%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Citi Trends is about 854.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.50. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 753.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (43.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 314.76 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citi Trends to cross-verify your projections.Citi Trends Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citi Trends' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citi Trends' future price movements. Getting to know how Citi Trends' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citi Trends may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RERE | ATRenew Inc DRC | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.19 | 0.19 | 6.33 | (3.25) | 13.61 | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | (0.27) | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.07 | 4.55 | (4.37) | 11.38 | |
| NEGG | Newegg Commerce | (3.81) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.40 | (8.60) | 37.88 | |
| TRS | TriMas | (1.18) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.27 | (3.15) | 8.40 | |
| WINA | Winmark | 0.70 | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.04 | 3.40 | (3.09) | 9.64 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.38 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 4.41 | (4.91) | 11.95 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.30 | 10 per month | 1.52 | 0.16 | 2.93 | (2.25) | 8.15 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | 0.45 | 9 per month | 3.03 | 0.02 | 5.50 | (3.83) | 15.86 | |
| ARCO | Arcos Dorados Holdings | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.12 | 0.15 | 4.36 | (2.05) | 8.77 | |
| EVGO | Evgo Inc | 0.02 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.84 | (5.71) | 16.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Citi Trends
For every potential investor in Citi, whether a beginner or expert, Citi Trends' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citi Trends' price trends.Citi Trends Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citi Trends stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citi Trends could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citi Trends by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citi Trends Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citi Trends stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citi Trends shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citi Trends stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citi Trends entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6173.89 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.07) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.19) |
Citi Trends Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citi Trends' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citi Trends' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citi Trends
The number of cover stories for Citi Trends depends on current market conditions and Citi Trends' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citi Trends is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citi Trends' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Citi Trends Short Properties
Citi Trends' future price predictability will typically decrease when Citi Trends' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Citi Trends often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Citi Trends' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citi Trends' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 61.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citi Trends to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Citi Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citi Trends guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Will Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Citi diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citi Trends. Projected growth potential of Citi fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Citi Trends data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (1.97) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Citi Trends requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Citi's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Citi Trends' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Citi Trends' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Citi Trends' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Citi Trends should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Citi Trends' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.