China Yuchai Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CYD Stock | USD 47.60 3.47 7.86% |
China Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Yuchai stock prices and determine the direction of China Yuchai International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Yuchai's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of China Yuchai's stock price is about 69 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling China, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using China Yuchai hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Yuchai International from the perspective of China Yuchai response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of China Yuchai International on the next trading day is expected to be 45.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.51. China Yuchai after-hype prediction price | USD 48.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Yuchai to cross-verify your projections. China Yuchai Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
China Yuchai Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of China Yuchai International on the next trading day is expected to be 45.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Yuchai's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Yuchai Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest China Yuchai | China Yuchai Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
China Yuchai Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Yuchai's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Yuchai's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.06 and 48.67, respectively. We have considered China Yuchai's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Yuchai stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Yuchai stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8019 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2184 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.505 |
Predictive Modules for China Yuchai
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Yuchai Interna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Yuchai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Yuchai After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of China Yuchai at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Yuchai or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of China Yuchai, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
China Yuchai Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting China Yuchai's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Yuchai's historical news coverage. China Yuchai's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.28 and 51.06, respectively. We have considered China Yuchai's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
China Yuchai is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Yuchai Interna is based on 3 months time horizon.
China Yuchai Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Yuchai is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Yuchai backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Yuchai, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.60 | 48.17 | 0.35 |
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China Yuchai Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January China Yuchai Interna is traded for 47.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. China is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 48.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on China Yuchai is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.60. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.23. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. China Yuchai Interna has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.33. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of June 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Yuchai to cross-verify your projections.China Yuchai Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to China Yuchai's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Yuchai's future price movements. Getting to know how China Yuchai's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Yuchai may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TNC | Tennant Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.32 | (3.04) | 7.68 | |
| GRC | Gorman Rupp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.14 | 3.41 | (2.18) | 7.79 | |
| BW | Babcock Wilcox Enterprises | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.57 | 0.26 | 13.18 | (7.60) | 44.19 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.77 | 0.02 | 7.26 | (6.61) | 35.68 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.11 | 3.51 | (2.29) | 12.32 | |
| ICFI | ICF International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 4.00 | (3.02) | 8.99 | |
| NMM | Navios Maritime Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.19 | 2.94 | (1.98) | 7.51 | |
| BLDP | Ballard Power Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.96 | (5.63) | 15.31 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.98 | (4.00) | 14.26 | |
| THR | Thermon Group Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.29 | 3.70 | (2.28) | 15.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for China Yuchai
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Yuchai's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Yuchai's price trends.China Yuchai Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Yuchai stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Yuchai could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Yuchai by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Yuchai Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Yuchai stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Yuchai shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Yuchai stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Yuchai International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Yuchai Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Yuchai's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Yuchai's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for China Yuchai
The number of cover stories for China Yuchai depends on current market conditions and China Yuchai's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Yuchai is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Yuchai's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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China Yuchai Short Properties
China Yuchai's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Yuchai's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Yuchai International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Yuchai's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Yuchai's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Yuchai to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Yuchai. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Yuchai listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of China Yuchai Interna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Yuchai's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Yuchai's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Yuchai's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Yuchai's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Yuchai's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if China Yuchai is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Yuchai's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.