ECB Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ECBK Stock | USD 17.40 0.02 0.12% |
ECB Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ECB Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ECB Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ECB Bancorp fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of ECB Bancorp's stock price is about 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ECB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.109 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.315 |
Using ECB Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ECB Bancorp from the perspective of ECB Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.50. ECB Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 17.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECB Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. ECB Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ECB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ECB using various technical indicators. When you analyze ECB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ECB Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ECB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ECB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ECB Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ECB Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ECB Bancorp | ECB Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ECB Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ECB Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ECB Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.95 and 18.85, respectively. We have considered ECB Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ECB Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ECB Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4346 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0363 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1417 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.5 |
Predictive Modules for ECB Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECB Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ECB Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ECB Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ECB Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ECB Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ECB Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ECB Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ECB Bancorp's historical news coverage. ECB Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.92 and 18.88, respectively. We have considered ECB Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ECB Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ECB Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
ECB Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ECB Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ECB Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ECB Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.45 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.40 | 17.40 | 0.00 |
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ECB Bancorp Hype Timeline
ECB Bancorp is currently traded for 17.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. ECB is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on ECB Bancorp is about 381.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.31. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ECB Bancorp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECB Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.ECB Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ECB Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ECB Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how ECB Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ECB Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.05 | 3.70 | (2.21) | 8.84 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | (2.96) | 8 per month | 2.51 | 0.11 | 6.23 | (4.26) | 17.93 | |
| LARK | Landmark Bancorp | (0.33) | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 3.35 | (2.95) | 8.99 | |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares | (8.51) | 6 per month | 0.81 | 0.15 | 4.49 | (1.80) | 9.61 | |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp | 0.31 | 6 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 2.54 | (2.05) | 7.48 | |
| MNSB | Mainstreet Bank | (0.28) | 7 per month | 1.33 | 0.04 | 3.35 | (2.64) | 8.15 | |
| CZWI | Citizens Community Bancorp | 0.35 | 16 per month | 0.80 | 0.12 | 2.36 | (1.73) | 7.50 | |
| RMBI | Richmond Mutual Bancorporation | 0.18 | 5 per month | 1.47 | 0 | 3.33 | (2.76) | 8.20 | |
| BFIN | BankFinancial | 0.18 | 6 per month | 1.72 | (0.04) | 2.79 | (1.95) | 10.20 | |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 7.53 | 25 per month | 0.79 | 0.11 | 3.15 | (1.45) | 5.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for ECB Bancorp
For every potential investor in ECB, whether a beginner or expert, ECB Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ECB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ECB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ECB Bancorp's price trends.ECB Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ECB Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ECB Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ECB Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ECB Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ECB Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ECB Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ECB Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ECB Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ECB Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of ECB Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ECB Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ecb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9131 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ECB Bancorp
The number of cover stories for ECB Bancorp depends on current market conditions and ECB Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ECB Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ECB Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ECB Bancorp Short Properties
ECB Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when ECB Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ECB Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ECB Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ECB Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 172.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECB Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy ECB Stock please use our How to buy in ECB Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ECB Bancorp. If investors know ECB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ECB Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.109 | Earnings Share 0.8 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.315 | Return On Assets |
The market value of ECB Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ECB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ECB Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ECB Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ECB Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ECB Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ECB Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ECB Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ECB Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.