FuelCell Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| FCEL Stock | USD 8.19 0.80 8.90% |
FuelCell Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although FuelCell Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of FuelCell Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of FuelCell Energy fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of FuelCell Energy's share price is approaching 49. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FuelCell Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (2.42) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.43) | Wall Street Target Price 8.7083 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.03) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
Using FuelCell Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FuelCell Energy from the perspective of FuelCell Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FuelCell Energy using FuelCell Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FuelCell using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FuelCell Energy's stock price.
FuelCell Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long FuelCell Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about FuelCell Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge FuelCell Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.4926 | Short Percent 0.0996 | Short Ratio 1.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 8.018 |
FuelCell Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FuelCell Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 8.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.42.FuelCell Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to FuelCell Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FuelCell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FuelCell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FuelCell Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of FuelCell Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about FuelCell Energy.
FuelCell Energy Implied Volatility | 1.22 |
FuelCell Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FuelCell Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FuelCell Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FuelCell Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when FuelCell Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FuelCell Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 8.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.42.
FuelCell Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 8.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FuelCell contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that FuelCell Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0763% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With FuelCell Energy trading at USD 8.19, that is roughly USD 0.006245 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating FuelCell Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring FuelCell Energy options at the current volatility level of 1.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 FuelCell Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FuelCell Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FuelCell Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FuelCell Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FuelCell Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to FuelCell Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FuelCell Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FuelCell. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FuelCell Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FuelCell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FuelCell using various technical indicators. When you analyze FuelCell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FuelCell Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of FuelCell Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 8.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FuelCell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FuelCell Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FuelCell Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FuelCell Energy | FuelCell Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
FuelCell Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FuelCell Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FuelCell Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.87 and 15.04, respectively. We have considered FuelCell Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FuelCell Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FuelCell Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6304 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.679 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.4179 |
Predictive Modules for FuelCell Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FuelCell Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FuelCell Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FuelCell Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FuelCell Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FuelCell Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FuelCell Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FuelCell Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FuelCell Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FuelCell Energy's historical news coverage. FuelCell Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.87 and 14.51, respectively. We have considered FuelCell Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FuelCell Energy is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FuelCell Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
FuelCell Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FuelCell Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FuelCell Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FuelCell Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 6.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.19 | 8.19 | 0.00 |
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FuelCell Energy Hype Timeline
FuelCell Energy is currently traded for 8.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. FuelCell is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on FuelCell Energy is about 15589.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.19. About 28.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FuelCell Energy recorded a loss per share of 7.42. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of May 2019. The firm had 1:30 split on the 11th of November 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections.FuelCell Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FuelCell Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FuelCell Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how FuelCell Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FuelCell Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKYX | SKYX Platforms Corp | (0.06) | 10 per month | 4.03 | 0.09 | 11.11 | (6.67) | 32.00 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| DFLI | Chardan NexTech Acquisition | (0.06) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 13.98 | (18.33) | 58.61 | |
| BLNK | Blink Charging Co | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 10.45 | (8.33) | 30.46 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.92 | (10.26) | 33.61 | |
| NEOV | NeoVolta Common Stock | (0.27) | 6 per month | 6.11 | 0.05 | 11.55 | (9.51) | 50.89 | |
| RGP | Resources Connection | 0.07 | 10 per month | 3.50 | 0.03 | 4.80 | (4.06) | 21.08 | |
| POWW | Ammo Inc | 0.02 | 8 per month | 2.84 | 0.05 | 5.59 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| VWAV | VisionWave Holdings Common | 0.66 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 13.43 | (10.78) | 35.98 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.05 | 10 per month | 3.33 | 0.05 | 6.44 | (4.73) | 15.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for FuelCell Energy
For every potential investor in FuelCell, whether a beginner or expert, FuelCell Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FuelCell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FuelCell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FuelCell Energy's price trends.FuelCell Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FuelCell Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FuelCell Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FuelCell Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FuelCell Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FuelCell Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FuelCell Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FuelCell Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FuelCell Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FuelCell Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of FuelCell Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FuelCell Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fuelcell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.69 | |||
| Variance | 44.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 36.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FuelCell Energy
The number of cover stories for FuelCell Energy depends on current market conditions and FuelCell Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FuelCell Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FuelCell Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FuelCell Energy Short Properties
FuelCell Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when FuelCell Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FuelCell Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FuelCell Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FuelCell Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 294.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy FuelCell Stock please use our How to buy in FuelCell Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Electrical Components & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FuelCell Energy. Market participants price FuelCell higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive FuelCell Energy assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (7.42) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate FuelCell Energy using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating FuelCell Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause FuelCell Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FuelCell Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FuelCell Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, FuelCell Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.