First Northwest Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FNWB Stock | USD 10.43 0.22 2.07% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Northwest stock prices and determine the direction of First Northwest Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of First Northwest's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of First Northwest's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.25 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.13 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.775 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.075 | Wall Street Target Price 12.75 |
Using First Northwest hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Northwest Bancorp from the perspective of First Northwest response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Northwest Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.16. First Northwest after-hype prediction price | USD 10.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Northwest to cross-verify your projections. First Northwest Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Northwest Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Northwest Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Northwest's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Northwest Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Northwest | First Northwest Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
First Northwest Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Northwest's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Northwest's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.94 and 11.92, respectively. We have considered First Northwest's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Northwest stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Northwest stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6569 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0329 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1193 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.155 |
Predictive Modules for First Northwest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Northwest Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Northwest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Northwest After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Northwest at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Northwest or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Northwest, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Northwest Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Northwest's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Northwest's historical news coverage. First Northwest's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.94 and 11.92, respectively. We have considered First Northwest's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Northwest is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Northwest Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Northwest Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Northwest is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Northwest backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Northwest, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.43 | 10.43 | 0.00 |
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First Northwest Hype Timeline
First Northwest Bancorp is currently traded for 10.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. First is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Northwest is about 3634.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.42. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.61. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Northwest Bancorp recorded a loss per share of 0.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Northwest to cross-verify your projections.First Northwest Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Northwest's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Northwest's future price movements. Getting to know how First Northwest's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Northwest may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOTJ | Bank of the | (0.12) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.20 | 3.12 | (2.51) | 9.56 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.28 | 0.11 | 1.38 | (0.78) | 5.02 | |
| FUSB | First Bancshares | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.60 | 0.16 | 4.47 | (3.07) | 13.31 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | (0.04) | 8 per month | 3.55 | 0.11 | 8.86 | (6.85) | 23.91 | |
| FDSB | Fifth District Bancorp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.22 | 0.22 | 1.09 | (1.05) | 3.97 | |
| UBCP | United Bancorp | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.41 | 0.06 | 2.86 | (2.56) | 8.48 | |
| SSBI | Summit State Bank | (0.01) | 5 per month | 1.87 | 0.11 | 3.62 | (2.69) | 7.99 | |
| WSBK | Winchester Bancorp Common | (0.12) | 2 per month | 0.24 | 0.22 | 2.75 | (1.08) | 7.47 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | (0.09) | 9 per month | 2.79 | (0.01) | 4.69 | (4.35) | 17.69 | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.70 | (4.00) | 17.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Northwest
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Northwest's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Northwest's price trends.First Northwest Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Northwest stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Northwest could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Northwest by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Northwest Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Northwest stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Northwest shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Northwest stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Northwest Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 943.22 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.73) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.22) |
First Northwest Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Northwest's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Northwest's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8954 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8018 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Northwest
The number of cover stories for First Northwest depends on current market conditions and First Northwest's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Northwest is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Northwest's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Northwest Short Properties
First Northwest's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Northwest's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Northwest Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Northwest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Northwest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 285.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Northwest to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Northwest. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive First Northwest assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.25 | Dividend Share 0.14 | Earnings Share (0.48) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.739 |
Investors evaluate First Northwest Bancorp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating First Northwest's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause First Northwest's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Northwest's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Northwest is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, First Northwest's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.