Fossil Stock Forecast - Risk Adjusted Performance
| FOSL Stock | USD 3.63 0.12 3.20% |
Fossil Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Fossil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fossil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fossil fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Fossil's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fossil, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.25) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.83) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.20) | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
Using Fossil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fossil Group from the perspective of Fossil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fossil using Fossil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fossil using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fossil's stock price.
Fossil Short Interest
An investor who is long Fossil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fossil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fossil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.8335 | Short Percent 0.091 | Short Ratio 3.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.5 M | 50 Day MA 2.5696 |
Fossil Relative Strength Index
Fossil Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fossil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fossil. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fossil can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fossil Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fossil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fossil.
Fossil Implied Volatility | 1.8 |
Fossil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fossil Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fossil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fossil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fossil's options are near their expiration.
Fossil after-hype prediction price | USD 3.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fossil contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fossil Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Fossil trading at USD 3.63, that is roughly USD 0.004084 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fossil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fossil Group options at the current volatility level of 1.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Fossil Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fossil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fossil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fossil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fossil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fossil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fossil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fossil. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fossil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fossil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fossil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fossil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Check Fossil Volatility | Backtest Fossil | Information Ratio |
Fossil Trading Date Momentum
| On January 26 2026 Fossil Group was traded for 3.63 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 3.79 and the lowest listed price was 3.54 . There was no trading activity during the period 0.0. Lack of trading volume on January 26, 2026 did not affect price variability. The overall trading delta against the current closing price is 3.31% . |
| Compare Fossil to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Fossil
For every potential investor in Fossil, whether a beginner or expert, Fossil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fossil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fossil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fossil's price trends.Fossil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fossil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fossil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fossil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fossil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fossil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fossil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fossil Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fossil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fossil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fossil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fossil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.41 | |||
| Variance | 29.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fossil
The number of cover stories for Fossil depends on current market conditions and Fossil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fossil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fossil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fossil Short Properties
Fossil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fossil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fossil Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fossil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fossil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (1.11) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.