Fossil Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

FOSL Stock  USD 1.15  0.05  4.17%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Fossil Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.83. Fossil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fossil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fossil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fossil fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Fossil's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 10.77 this year, although the value of Payables Turnover will most likely fall to 4.87. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 51.2 M. Net Loss is expected to rise to about (37.8 M) this year.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Fossil price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Fossil Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Fossil Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fossil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fossil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fossil Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fossil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fossil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fossil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.59, respectively. We have considered Fossil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.15
1.28
Expected Value
5.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fossil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fossil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6828
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0618
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0529
SAESum of the absolute errors3.8327
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Fossil Group historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Fossil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fossil Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fossil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.061.155.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.132.576.89
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.377.007.77
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Fossil

For every potential investor in Fossil, whether a beginner or expert, Fossil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fossil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fossil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fossil's price trends.

Fossil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fossil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fossil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fossil Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fossil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fossil's current price.

Fossil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fossil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fossil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fossil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fossil Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fossil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fossil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fossil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fossil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Fossil Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fossil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fossil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fossil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fossil to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.82)
Earnings Share
(2.33)
Revenue Per Share
23.195
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
(0.04)
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.