FS Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FSBW Stock | USD 43.43 1.84 4.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.90. FSBW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of FS Bancorp's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FS Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.5 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.89 | Wall Street Target Price 47 |
Using FS Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FS Bancorp from the perspective of FS Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.90. FS Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 43.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FS Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. FS Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FSBW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FSBW using various technical indicators. When you analyze FSBW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the FS Bancorp's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-12-31 | Previous Quarter 61.3 M | Current Value 13.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 35.7 M |
FS Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FS Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FSBW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FS Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FS Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FS Bancorp | FS Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FS Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FS Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FS Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.97 and 46.44, respectively. We have considered FS Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FS Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FS Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6976 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6868 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.8953 |
Predictive Modules for FS Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FS Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FS Bancorp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FS Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FS Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FS Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FS Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FS Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FS Bancorp's historical news coverage. FS Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.71 and 45.15, respectively. We have considered FS Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FS Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FS Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
FS Bancorp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FS Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FS Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FS Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.73 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
43.43 | 43.43 | 0.00 |
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FS Bancorp Hype Timeline
FS Bancorp is currently traded for 43.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. FSBW is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on FS Bancorp is about 982.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.47. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FS Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 6th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 15th of July 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FS Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.FS Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FS Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FS Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how FS Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FS Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.96 | 0.12 | 2.78 | (1.62) | 8.74 | |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 0.94 | 8 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 3.00 | (1.66) | 5.17 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.06 | 3.44 | (1.99) | 7.07 | |
| CZNC | Citizens Northern Corp | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.12 | 2.76 | (1.65) | 7.23 | |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial | 0.76 | 3 per month | 0.68 | 0.19 | 2.59 | (1.51) | 6.43 | |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 2.41 | (1.56) | 5.33 | |
| BCML | BayCom Corp | (0.27) | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.05 | 3.46 | (2.35) | 9.92 | |
| PCB | PCB Bancorp | 0.76 | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0.08 | 3.07 | (1.88) | 10.53 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | (0.59) | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.11 | 4.15 | (2.85) | 10.15 | |
| COSO | CoastalSouth Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.06 | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for FS Bancorp
For every potential investor in FSBW, whether a beginner or expert, FS Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FSBW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FSBW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FS Bancorp's price trends.FS Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FS Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FS Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FS Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FS Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FS Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FS Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FS Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FS Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FS Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of FS Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FS Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fsbw stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8589 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Variance | 3.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7377 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FS Bancorp
The number of cover stories for FS Bancorp depends on current market conditions and FS Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FS Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FS Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FS Bancorp Short Properties
FS Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when FS Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FS Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FS Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FS Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 200.7 M |
Additional Tools for FSBW Stock Analysis
When running FS Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure FS Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FS Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of FS Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FS Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FS Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FS Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.