FS Bancorp Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

FSBW Stock  USD 41.09  -0.22  -0.53%   
The 4 Period Moving Average output for FS Bancorp is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects FS Bancorp at 40.96 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. FS Bancorp's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
The four-period moving average forecast for FS Bancorp replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in FS Bancorp.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts FS Bancorp at 40.96 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 34.25 .
This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks FS Bancorp's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

FS Bancorp's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 39.25 and upside around 42.67 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
41.09
40.96
Expected Value
42.67

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for FS Bancorp stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1744
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0222
MADMean absolute deviation0.6009
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors34.2525
The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that FS Bancorp price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for FS Bancorp

Relative Strength Index values for FSBW measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in FS Bancorp's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of FSBW Stock daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals.

FS Bancorp Related Equities

These related stocks within the Financials space give benchmarks for judging FS Bancorp's results, margins, and growth trend. Growth rate gaps between FS Bancorp and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of FS Bancorp.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FS Bancorp Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for FS Bancorp reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing FS Bancorp near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for FS Bancorp.

FS Bancorp Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for FS Bancorp quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in FS Bancorp have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as FS Bancorp's price.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

FS Bancorp Short Properties

Short-interest signals around FS Bancorp reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.66 million
Cash And Short Term Investments302.17 million

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