Graham Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GHM Stock | USD 84.40 0.52 0.62% |
Graham Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Graham's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Graham's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Graham fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Graham's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.786 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.395 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.37 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0033 | Wall Street Target Price 88.25 |
Using Graham hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graham from the perspective of Graham response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Graham using Graham's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Graham using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Graham's stock price.
Graham Short Interest
An investor who is long Graham may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Graham and may potentially protect profits, hedge Graham with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 55.1764 | Short Percent 0.0494 | Short Ratio 4.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 440.9 K | 50 Day MA 69.732 |
Graham Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham on the next trading day is expected to be 84.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.87.Graham Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graham's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graham. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graham can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graham. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Graham's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Graham.
Graham Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
Graham's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Graham stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Graham's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Graham stock will not fluctuate a lot when Graham's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham on the next trading day is expected to be 84.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.87. Graham after-hype prediction price | USD 81.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Graham contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Graham will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0594% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Graham trading at USD 84.4, that is roughly USD 0.0501 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Graham's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Graham options at the current volatility level of 0.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Graham Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Graham's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Graham's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Graham stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Graham's open interest, investors have to compare it to Graham's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Graham is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Graham. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Graham Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graham price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graham using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graham charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graham Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham on the next trading day is expected to be 84.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90, mean absolute percentage error of 6.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graham Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graham's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graham Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graham | Graham Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Graham Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graham's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graham's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.82 and 87.58, respectively. We have considered Graham's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graham stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graham stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6842 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8978 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0274 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.87 |
Predictive Modules for Graham
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graham. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graham After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graham at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graham or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graham, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graham Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graham's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graham's historical news coverage. Graham's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.31 and 85.07, respectively. We have considered Graham's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graham is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graham is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graham Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graham is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graham backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graham, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.74 | 3.38 | 2.71 | 3.07 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
84.40 | 81.69 | 3.21 |
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Graham Hype Timeline
On the 14th of February 2026 Graham is traded for 84.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.07. Graham is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 81.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 92.35%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -3.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.74%. The volatility of related hype on Graham is about 81.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.47. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.77. Graham last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2021. The entity had 2:1 split on the 7th of October 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham to cross-verify your projections.Graham Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graham's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graham's future price movements. Getting to know how Graham's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graham may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMR | Emerson Electric | (3.66) | 9 per month | 2.22 | 0.08 | 3.43 | (3.47) | 11.44 | |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace | (4.43) | 10 per month | 1.33 | 0.11 | 3.56 | (2.29) | 7.17 | |
| TT | Trane Technologies plc | (5.06) | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.03 | 2.42 | (2.68) | 10.64 | |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing | (0.83) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.69 | (2.18) | 7.52 | |
| GD | General Dynamics | 5.52 | 8 per month | 1.50 | (0.04) | 2.28 | (2.71) | 7.72 | |
| CMI | Cummins | 27.91 | 8 per month | 2.28 | 0.13 | 2.87 | (2.50) | 15.60 | |
| MMM | 3M Company | (2.49) | 12 per month | 1.79 | (0) | 2.12 | (2.06) | 9.08 | |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 16.25 | 8 per month | 1.41 | 0.16 | 2.91 | (1.87) | 9.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Graham
For every potential investor in Graham, whether a beginner or expert, Graham's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graham Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graham's price trends.Graham Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graham stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graham could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graham by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graham Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graham stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graham shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graham stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graham entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2495.73 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1481 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 85.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 85.38 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.52 |
Graham Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graham's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graham's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graham stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 12.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Graham
The number of cover stories for Graham depends on current market conditions and Graham's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graham is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graham's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Graham Short Properties
Graham's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graham's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graham often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graham's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graham's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Graham Stock, please use our How to Invest in Graham guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could Graham diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graham. Market participants price Graham higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Graham data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.786 | Earnings Share 1.35 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.205 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Graham is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graham that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graham's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graham's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Graham's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graham's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graham's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graham is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Graham's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.