Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GSHD Stock | USD 63.58 4.70 6.88% |
Goosehead Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Goosehead Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Goosehead Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Goosehead Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Goosehead Insurance's share price is approaching 35. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Goosehead Insurance, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5392 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7841 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1326 | Wall Street Target Price 89.8182 |
Using Goosehead Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Goosehead Insurance from the perspective of Goosehead Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Goosehead Insurance using Goosehead Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Goosehead using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Goosehead Insurance's stock price.
Goosehead Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Goosehead Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Goosehead. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Goosehead Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 86.3462 | Short Percent 0.1168 | Short Ratio 8.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.4 M | 50 Day MA 72.6623 |
Goosehead Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 63.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.27.Goosehead Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Goosehead Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Goosehead. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Goosehead can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Goosehead Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Goosehead Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Goosehead Insurance.
Goosehead Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.7 |
Goosehead Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Goosehead Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Goosehead Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Goosehead Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Goosehead Insurance's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 63.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.27. Goosehead Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 64.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Goosehead | Build AI portfolio with Goosehead Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Goosehead contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Goosehead Insurance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0438% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Goosehead Insurance trading at USD 63.58, that is roughly USD 0.0278 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Goosehead Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Goosehead Insurance options at the current volatility level of 0.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Goosehead Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Goosehead Insurance's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Goosehead Insurance's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Goosehead Insurance stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Goosehead Insurance's open interest, investors have to compare it to Goosehead Insurance's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Goosehead Insurance is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Goosehead. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Goosehead Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Goosehead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Goosehead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Goosehead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Goosehead Insurance Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Goosehead Insurance's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-03-31 | Previous Quarter 92.4 M | Current Value 51.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 20.3 M |
Goosehead Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 63.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30, mean absolute percentage error of 2.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Goosehead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Goosehead Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Goosehead Insurance | Goosehead Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Goosehead Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Goosehead Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Goosehead Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 61.56 and 65.77, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Goosehead Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Goosehead Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0291 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2995 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.2683 |
Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Goosehead Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Goosehead Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Goosehead Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Goosehead Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Goosehead Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Goosehead Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Goosehead Insurance's historical news coverage. Goosehead Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.35 and 66.57, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Goosehead Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Goosehead Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Goosehead Insurance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Goosehead Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Goosehead Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Goosehead Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.11 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
63.58 | 64.46 | 0.08 |
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Goosehead Insurance Hype Timeline
Goosehead Insurance is currently traded for 63.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Goosehead is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 64.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 42.54%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Goosehead Insurance is about 604.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.58. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 21st of January 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goosehead Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Goosehead Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Goosehead Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Goosehead Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Goosehead Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARX | Accelerant Holdings | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.56 | 0.05 | 5.96 | (4.53) | 15.79 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.31) | 11 per month | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.94 | (1.28) | 31.02 | |
| HCI | HCI Group | (3.91) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.88 | (4.07) | 9.93 | |
| HG | Hamilton Insurance Group | (0.54) | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 2.26 | (2.26) | 12.81 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | (0.28) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.31 | (3.07) | 14.64 | |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii | 2.16 | 7 per month | 1.16 | 0.15 | 2.58 | (1.71) | 8.71 | |
| OAK-PB | Oaktree Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | (0.1) | 1.34 | (1.17) | 4.82 | |
| CVBF | CVB Financial | 0.46 | 7 per month | 1.48 | 0.01 | 3.01 | (2.89) | 6.60 | |
| OAK-PA | Oaktree Capital Group | (0.59) | 19 per month | 1.04 | (0.09) | 1.20 | (1.28) | 5.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Goosehead Insurance
For every potential investor in Goosehead, whether a beginner or expert, Goosehead Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Goosehead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Goosehead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Goosehead Insurance's price trends.Goosehead Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Goosehead Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Goosehead Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Goosehead Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Goosehead Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Goosehead Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Goosehead Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Goosehead Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Goosehead Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Goosehead Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Goosehead Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting goosehead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Goosehead Insurance
The number of cover stories for Goosehead Insurance depends on current market conditions and Goosehead Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Goosehead Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Goosehead Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Goosehead Insurance Short Properties
Goosehead Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Goosehead Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Goosehead Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Goosehead Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Goosehead Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 54.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goosehead Insurance to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Goosehead Stock refer to our How to Trade Goosehead Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Insurance Brokers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Earnings Share 1.14 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.16 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Goosehead Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.