Johnson Controls Stock Forward View
| JCI Stock | USD 137.65 5.13 3.87% |
Johnson Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Johnson Controls' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 8th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Johnson Controls' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.342 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0533 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.7406 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.4886 | Wall Street Target Price 139.9474 |
Using Johnson Controls hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Johnson Controls International from the perspective of Johnson Controls response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Johnson Controls using Johnson Controls' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Johnson using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Johnson Controls' stock price.
Johnson Controls Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Johnson Controls' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Johnson. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Johnson Controls stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 108.1506 | Short Percent 0.026 | Short Ratio 1.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.3 M | 50 Day MA 117.2196 |
Johnson Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Controls International on the next trading day is expected to be 145.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.68.Johnson Controls Int Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Johnson Controls' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Johnson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Johnson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Johnson Controls International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Johnson Controls' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Johnson Controls.
Johnson Controls Implied Volatility | 0.3 |
Johnson Controls' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Johnson Controls International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Johnson Controls' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Johnson Controls stock will not fluctuate a lot when Johnson Controls' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Controls International on the next trading day is expected to be 145.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.68. Johnson Controls after-hype prediction price | USD 138.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Controls to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Johnson contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Johnson Controls International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0188% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Johnson Controls trading at USD 137.65, that is roughly USD 0.0258 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Johnson Controls' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Johnson Controls International options at the current volatility level of 0.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Johnson Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Johnson Controls' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Johnson Controls' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Johnson Controls stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Johnson Controls' open interest, investors have to compare it to Johnson Controls' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Johnson Controls is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Johnson. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Johnson Controls Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Johnson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Johnson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Johnson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Johnson Controls Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Johnson Controls' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 379 M | Current Value 552 M | Quarterly Volatility 593.6 M |
Johnson Controls Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Controls International on the next trading day is expected to be 145.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65, mean absolute percentage error of 4.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Controls' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Johnson Controls Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Johnson Controls | Johnson Controls Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Johnson Controls Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Johnson Controls' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Controls' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 144.36 and 147.63, respectively. We have considered Johnson Controls' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Controls stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Controls stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5334 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6506 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 100.6842 |
Predictive Modules for Johnson Controls
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Controls Int. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Controls' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Johnson Controls After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Johnson Controls at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Johnson Controls or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Johnson Controls, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Johnson Controls Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Johnson Controls' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Johnson Controls' historical news coverage. Johnson Controls' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.43 and 139.73, respectively. We have considered Johnson Controls' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Johnson Controls is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Johnson Controls Int is based on 3 months time horizon.
Johnson Controls Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Johnson Controls is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Johnson Controls backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Johnson Controls, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.64 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
137.65 | 138.08 | 0.31 |
|
Johnson Controls Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February Johnson Controls Int is traded for 137.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.28. Johnson is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 138.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 80.79%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Johnson Controls is about 122.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 137.93. The company reported the last year's revenue of 23.6 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.72 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.74 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Controls to cross-verify your projections.Johnson Controls Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Johnson Controls' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Johnson Controls' future price movements. Getting to know how Johnson Controls' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Johnson Controls may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CARR | Carrier Global Corp | 0.86 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.05 | 4.09 | (1.94) | 6.58 | |
| EMR | Emerson Electric | (1.82) | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.06 | 3.43 | (3.00) | 9.23 | |
| TDG | Transdigm Group Incorporated | 9.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.76 | (2.03) | 12.34 | |
| CTAS | Cintas | (1.21) | 13 per month | 0.74 | 0.03 | 1.50 | (1.59) | 4.05 | |
| TT | Trane Technologies plc | 4.27 | 9 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 2.42 | (2.74) | 9.37 | |
| TRI | Thomson Reuters | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 1.63 | (4.19) | 18.17 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | (0.97) | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 2.77 | (2.12) | 6.22 | |
| WM | Waste Management | (0.46) | 7 per month | 0.90 | 0.13 | 2.06 | (1.42) | 6.00 | |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | (1.88) | 9 per month | 3.61 | 0 | 5.47 | (6.27) | 15.42 | |
| PWR | Quanta Services | 5.13 | 9 per month | 2.59 | 0.05 | 3.37 | (5.00) | 9.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Controls
For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Controls' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Controls' price trends.Johnson Controls Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Controls stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Controls could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Controls by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Johnson Controls Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Controls stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Controls shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Controls stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Controls International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Johnson Controls Risk Indicators
The analysis of Johnson Controls' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Controls' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting johnson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Johnson Controls
The number of cover stories for Johnson Controls depends on current market conditions and Johnson Controls' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Johnson Controls is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Johnson Controls' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Johnson Controls Short Properties
Johnson Controls' future price predictability will typically decrease when Johnson Controls' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Johnson Controls International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Johnson Controls' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Johnson Controls' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 654.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 379 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Controls to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is there potential for Building Products market expansion? Will Johnson introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Johnson Controls. Expected growth trajectory for Johnson significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Johnson Controls listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.342 | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share 2.97 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
Understanding Johnson Controls Int requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Johnson's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Johnson Controls' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Johnson Controls' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Johnson Controls' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Johnson Controls represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Johnson Controls' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.