Jefferies Financial Stock Forward View
| JEF Stock | USD 58.87 0.95 1.64% |
Jefferies Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Jefferies Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Jefferies Financial's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.259 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5957 | Wall Street Target Price 74.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.9441 |
Using Jefferies Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jefferies Financial Group from the perspective of Jefferies Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jefferies Financial using Jefferies Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jefferies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jefferies Financial's stock price.
Jefferies Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Jefferies Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Jefferies. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Jefferies Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 57.3424 | Short Percent 0.0282 | Short Ratio 2.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.3 M | 50 Day MA 61.0854 |
Jefferies Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jefferies Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 57.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10.Jefferies Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Jefferies Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Jefferies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jefferies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jefferies Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Jefferies Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Jefferies Financial.
Jefferies Financial Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Jefferies Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jefferies Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jefferies Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jefferies Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jefferies Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jefferies Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 57.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10. Jefferies Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 58.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Jefferies | Build AI portfolio with Jefferies Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jefferies contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jefferies Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Jefferies Financial trading at USD 58.87, that is roughly USD 0.0247 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jefferies Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jefferies Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Jefferies Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jefferies Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Jefferies Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Jefferies Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jefferies Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Jefferies Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jefferies Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jefferies. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Jefferies Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Jefferies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jefferies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jefferies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jefferies Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Jefferies Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-05-31 | Previous Quarter 11.5 B | Current Value 14 B | Quarterly Volatility 3.8 B |
Jefferies Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jefferies Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 57.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jefferies Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jefferies Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jefferies Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Jefferies Financial | Jefferies Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Jefferies Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jefferies Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jefferies Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.78 and 60.18, respectively. We have considered Jefferies Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jefferies Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jefferies Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3503 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.937 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.0961 |
Predictive Modules for Jefferies Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jefferies Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jefferies Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Jefferies Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jefferies Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jefferies Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Jefferies Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Jefferies Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jefferies Financial's historical news coverage. Jefferies Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.67 and 61.07, respectively. We have considered Jefferies Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Jefferies Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jefferies Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Jefferies Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jefferies Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jefferies Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jefferies Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.20 | 0.11 | 0.43 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.87 | 58.87 | 0.00 |
|
Jefferies Financial Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Jefferies Financial is traded for 58.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.43. Jefferies is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Jefferies Financial is about 82.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.44. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.13. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Jefferies Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.69. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of February 2026. The firm had 1046:1000 split on the 17th of January 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jefferies Financial to cross-verify your projections.Jefferies Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Jefferies Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jefferies Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Jefferies Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jefferies Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVR | Evercore Partners | (1.42) | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.13 | 3.50 | (3.26) | 9.02 | |
| SF | Stifel Financial | (3.04) | 7 per month | 1.31 | 0.06 | 2.43 | (2.17) | 5.81 | |
| XP | Xp Inc | (0.24) | 9 per month | 3.01 | 0.03 | 4.64 | (4.83) | 15.10 | |
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital Holdings | 0.19 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.25 | (10.42) | 30.35 | |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey | (1.53) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.82 | (3.04) | 10.42 | |
| IVZ | Invesco Plc | 0.21 | 8 per month | 2.11 | 0.08 | 4.04 | (3.21) | 9.73 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.94 | 0.18 | 3.35 | (1.71) | 7.47 | |
| AFG | American Financial Group | (1.58) | 9 per month | 1.03 | (0.02) | 1.79 | (1.70) | 6.99 | |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems | (16.50) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.56 | (6.17) | 16.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Jefferies Financial
For every potential investor in Jefferies, whether a beginner or expert, Jefferies Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jefferies Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jefferies. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jefferies Financial's price trends.Jefferies Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jefferies Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jefferies Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jefferies Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jefferies Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jefferies Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jefferies Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jefferies Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jefferies Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 60100.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5337 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.95 |
Jefferies Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jefferies Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jefferies Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jefferies stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Jefferies Financial
The number of cover stories for Jefferies Financial depends on current market conditions and Jefferies Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jefferies Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jefferies Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Jefferies Financial Short Properties
Jefferies Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Jefferies Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jefferies Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jefferies Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferies Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 222.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jefferies Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Can Multi-Sector Holdings industry sustain growth momentum? Does Jefferies have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jefferies Financial. Expected growth trajectory for Jefferies significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Jefferies Financial demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 2.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 |
Investors evaluate Jefferies Financial using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Jefferies Financial's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Jefferies Financial's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Jefferies Financial's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Jefferies Financial represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Jefferies Financial's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.