MidWestOne Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MOFG Stock  USD 46.01  0.13  0.28%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MidWestOne Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 46.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.86. MidWestOne Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MidWestOne Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of MidWestOne Financial's stock price is roughly 68. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 22nd of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling MidWestOne, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of MidWestOne Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of MidWestOne Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from MidWestOne Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MidWestOne Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using MidWestOne Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MidWestOne Financial Group from the perspective of MidWestOne Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MidWestOne Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 46.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.86.

MidWestOne Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.01  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidWestOne Financial to cross-verify your projections.

MidWestOne Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine MidWestOne price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MidWestOne using various technical indicators. When you analyze MidWestOne charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
MidWestOne Financial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for MidWestOne Financial Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as MidWestOne Financial prices get older.

MidWestOne Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MidWestOne Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 46.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MidWestOne Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MidWestOne Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MidWestOne Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MidWestOne FinancialMidWestOne Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

MidWestOne Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MidWestOne Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MidWestOne Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.85 and 48.17, respectively. We have considered MidWestOne Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.01
46.01
Expected Value
48.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MidWestOne Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MidWestOne Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9908
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1157
MADMean absolute deviation0.581
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0146
SAESum of the absolute errors34.86
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting MidWestOne Financial Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent MidWestOne Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for MidWestOne Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MidWestOne Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.8546.0148.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.6047.7649.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.2140.2744.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MidWestOne Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MidWestOne Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MidWestOne Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MidWestOne Financial.

MidWestOne Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of MidWestOne Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MidWestOne Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MidWestOne Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

MidWestOne Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting MidWestOne Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MidWestOne Financial's historical news coverage. MidWestOne Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.85 and 48.17, respectively. We have considered MidWestOne Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
46.01
46.01
After-hype Price
48.17
Upside
MidWestOne Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MidWestOne Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

MidWestOne Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MidWestOne Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MidWestOne Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MidWestOne Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
2.16
  0.65 
  0.08 
4 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
46.01
46.01
0.00 
96.86  
Notes

MidWestOne Financial Hype Timeline

MidWestOne Financial is now traded for 46.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.65, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. MidWestOne is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 96.86%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on MidWestOne Financial is about 752.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.93. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.41. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MidWestOne Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. The firm had 959692:319897 split on the 21st of August 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidWestOne Financial to cross-verify your projections.

MidWestOne Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to MidWestOne Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MidWestOne Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how MidWestOne Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MidWestOne Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CPFCentral Pacific Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.54  0.06  2.86 (2.04) 9.04 
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.34  0.04  2.80 (1.77) 6.52 
HAFCHanmi Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.92  0.05  3.02 (1.52) 5.64 
HBTHbt Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.16  0.08  3.07 (2.69) 7.65 
HFWAHeritage Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.16  0.12  4.71 (1.91) 8.62 
AMALAmalgamated Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.14  0.21  3.60 (2.09) 7.38 
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 1.04  0.07  2.72 (1.57) 5.57 
FSBCFive Star Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.19  0.06  3.59 (2.35) 8.73 
CCNECNB Financial(0.64)16 per month 0.74  0.09  3.12 (1.52) 5.21 
SBSISouthside Bancshares(2.23)4 per month 0.62  0.18  2.73 (1.34) 4.70 

Other Forecasting Options for MidWestOne Financial

For every potential investor in MidWestOne, whether a beginner or expert, MidWestOne Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MidWestOne Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MidWestOne. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MidWestOne Financial's price trends.

MidWestOne Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MidWestOne Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MidWestOne Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MidWestOne Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MidWestOne Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MidWestOne Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MidWestOne Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MidWestOne Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MidWestOne Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MidWestOne Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of MidWestOne Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MidWestOne Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting midwestone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for MidWestOne Financial

The number of cover stories for MidWestOne Financial depends on current market conditions and MidWestOne Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MidWestOne Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MidWestOne Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

MidWestOne Financial Short Properties

MidWestOne Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when MidWestOne Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MidWestOne Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MidWestOne Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MidWestOne Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.5 B
When determining whether MidWestOne Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze MidWestOne Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact MidWestOne Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding MidWestOne Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MidWestOne Financial to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MidWestOne Financial. If investors know MidWestOne will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MidWestOne Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of MidWestOne Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MidWestOne that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MidWestOne Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MidWestOne Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MidWestOne Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MidWestOne Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MidWestOne Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MidWestOne Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MidWestOne Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.