Murphy Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MUR Stock | USD 30.54 0.31 1.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.11. Murphy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Murphy Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Murphy Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Murphy Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Murphy Oil's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2626 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3267 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.824 | Wall Street Target Price 29.4 |
Using Murphy Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy Oil from the perspective of Murphy Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy Oil using Murphy Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy Oil's stock price.
Murphy Oil Short Interest
An investor who is long Murphy Oil may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Murphy Oil and may potentially protect profits, hedge Murphy Oil with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.0178 | Short Percent 0.184 | Short Ratio 9.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 18 M | 50 Day MA 30.5232 |
Murphy Oil Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Murphy Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy Oil.
Murphy Oil Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Murphy Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy Oil's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.11. Murphy Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 30.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy Oil to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Murphy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Murphy Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Murphy Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Murphy Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Murphy Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Murphy Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Murphy Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Murphy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Murphy Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Murphy Oil Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Murphy Oil's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 379.6 M | Current Value 426 M | Quarterly Volatility 308.2 M |
Murphy Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 31.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Murphy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Murphy Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Murphy Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Murphy Oil | Murphy Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Murphy Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Murphy Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Murphy Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.48 and 34.15, respectively. We have considered Murphy Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Murphy Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Murphy Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1346 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5018 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.1105 |
Predictive Modules for Murphy Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Murphy Oil
For every potential investor in Murphy, whether a beginner or expert, Murphy Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Murphy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Murphy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Murphy Oil's price trends.Murphy Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Murphy Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Murphy Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Murphy Oil Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Murphy Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Murphy Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Murphy Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Murphy Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Murphy Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Murphy Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Murphy Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 61425.74 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.31) |
Murphy Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Murphy Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Murphy Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting murphy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Variance | 7.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Murphy Oil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Murphy Oil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Murphy Oil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Murphy Stock
Moving against Murphy Stock
| 0.79 | WTI | WT Offshore | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | BHFAL | Brighthouse Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | AESI | Atlas Energy Solutions | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | SOC | Sable Offshore Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Murphy Oil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Murphy Oil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Murphy Oil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Murphy Oil to buy it.
The correlation of Murphy Oil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Murphy Oil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Murphy Oil moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Murphy Oil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.