Orrstown Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ORRF Stock | USD 36.04 0.16 0.44% |
Orrstown Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Orrstown Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Orrstown Financial's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Orrstown Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.384 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.238 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.314 | Wall Street Target Price 41 |
Using Orrstown Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orrstown Financial Services from the perspective of Orrstown Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Orrstown Financial using Orrstown Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Orrstown using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Orrstown Financial's stock price.
Orrstown Financial Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
Orrstown Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Orrstown Financial Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Orrstown Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Orrstown Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Orrstown Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Orrstown Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 37.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.58. Orrstown Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 36.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orrstown Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Orrstown contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Orrstown Financial Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Orrstown Financial trading at USD 36.04, that is roughly USD 0.0196 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Orrstown Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Orrstown Financial Services options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Orrstown Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Orrstown Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Orrstown Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Orrstown Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Orrstown Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Orrstown Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Orrstown Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Orrstown. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Orrstown Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orrstown price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orrstown using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orrstown charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Orrstown Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Orrstown Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-12-31 | Previous Quarter 149.4 M | Current Value 184.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 74.7 M |
Orrstown Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Orrstown Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 37.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orrstown Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orrstown Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Orrstown Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orrstown Financial | Orrstown Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Orrstown Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Orrstown Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Orrstown Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.82 and 38.77, respectively. We have considered Orrstown Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orrstown Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orrstown Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1497 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.5843 |
Predictive Modules for Orrstown Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orrstown Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Orrstown Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orrstown Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orrstown Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orrstown Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orrstown Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orrstown Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orrstown Financial's historical news coverage. Orrstown Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.54 and 37.54, respectively. We have considered Orrstown Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orrstown Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orrstown Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orrstown Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orrstown Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orrstown Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orrstown Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.48 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 15 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.04 | 36.04 | 0.00 |
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Orrstown Financial Hype Timeline
Orrstown Financial is now traded for 36.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Orrstown is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 166.29%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orrstown Financial is about 340.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.11. About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.23. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Orrstown Financial last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2025. The entity had 105:100 split on the 23rd of May 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orrstown Financial to cross-verify your projections.Orrstown Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orrstown Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orrstown Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Orrstown Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orrstown Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 1.26 | 30 per month | 1.48 | 0.09 | 3.32 | (2.94) | 10.40 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | (0.44) | 11 per month | 1.42 | 0.01 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 1.26 | 13 per month | 1.40 | 0.09 | 3.55 | (2.36) | 10.39 | |
| CAC | Camden National | (0.31) | 9 per month | 1.11 | 0.17 | 3.78 | (1.96) | 10.30 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 1.26 | 25 per month | 1.78 | 0.01 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.58 | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.06 | 3.09 | (2.90) | 8.54 | |
| IBCP | Independent Bank | (0.89) | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.04 | 2.57 | (2.57) | 7.82 | |
| BCAL | Southern California Bancorp | 1.26 | 23 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 2.27 | (1.97) | 7.59 | |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | (0.89) | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.18 | 2.97 | (2.06) | 12.58 | |
| NBBK | NB Bancorp Common | 1.26 | 20 per month | 1.06 | 0.10 | 2.93 | (2.07) | 6.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orrstown Financial
For every potential investor in Orrstown, whether a beginner or expert, Orrstown Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Orrstown Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Orrstown. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Orrstown Financial's price trends.Orrstown Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Orrstown Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Orrstown Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Orrstown Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orrstown Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Orrstown Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Orrstown Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Orrstown Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Orrstown Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Orrstown Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Orrstown Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Orrstown Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting orrstown stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orrstown Financial
The number of cover stories for Orrstown Financial depends on current market conditions and Orrstown Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orrstown Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orrstown Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Orrstown Financial Short Properties
Orrstown Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Orrstown Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Orrstown Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Orrstown Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orrstown Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orrstown Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orrstown Financial. If investors know Orrstown will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Orrstown Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.384 | Dividend Share 1.02 | Earnings Share 3.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.269 |
The market value of Orrstown Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Orrstown that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Orrstown Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Orrstown Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Orrstown Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Orrstown Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Orrstown Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Orrstown Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Orrstown Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.