Pioneer Bancorp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PBFS Stock | USD 13.55 0.45 3.21% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pioneer Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.48. Pioneer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pioneer Bancorp's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
Using Pioneer Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pioneer Bancorp from the perspective of Pioneer Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pioneer Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.48. Pioneer Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 13.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pioneer Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. Pioneer Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pioneer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pioneer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pioneer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pioneer Bancorp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pioneer Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pioneer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pioneer Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pioneer Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pioneer Bancorp | Pioneer Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pioneer Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pioneer Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pioneer Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.07 and 15.05, respectively. We have considered Pioneer Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pioneer Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pioneer Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0218 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1607 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.4835 |
Predictive Modules for Pioneer Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pioneer Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pioneer Bancorp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pioneer Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pioneer Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pioneer Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pioneer Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pioneer Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pioneer Bancorp's historical news coverage. Pioneer Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.28 and 15.14, respectively. We have considered Pioneer Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pioneer Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pioneer Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pioneer Bancorp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pioneer Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pioneer Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pioneer Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.49 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 19 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.55 | 13.71 | 2.07 |
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Pioneer Bancorp Hype Timeline
Pioneer Bancorp is at this time traded for 13.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Pioneer is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Pioneer Bancorp is about 495.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.53. About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Pioneer Bancorp has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 380.0. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pioneer Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Pioneer Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pioneer Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pioneer Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Pioneer Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pioneer Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OBT | Orange County Bancorp | 0.23 | 9 per month | 1.43 | 0.13 | 3.52 | (2.65) | 8.69 | |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group | (0.65) | 3 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 3.50 | (2.24) | 9.42 | |
| RBB | RBB Bancorp | (0.65) | 6 per month | 0.99 | 0.14 | 3.49 | (1.48) | 9.67 | |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp | (0.37) | 6 per month | 1.33 | 0.05 | 3.46 | (2.69) | 8.59 | |
| FMAO | Farmers Merchants Bancorp | 0.18 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0 | 4.61 | (3.40) | 10.45 | |
| USCB | US Century Bank | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.06 | 3.59 | (2.22) | 7.02 | |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | (0.65) | 8 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 2.65 | (2.04) | 8.30 | |
| SFST | Southern First Bancshares | (0.65) | 3 per month | 1.65 | 0.15 | 4.48 | (2.14) | 10.52 | |
| PCB | PCB Bancorp | 0.33 | 14 per month | 1.50 | (0) | 2.99 | (2.34) | 8.25 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.65) | 3 per month | 1.85 | 0.18 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pioneer Bancorp
For every potential investor in Pioneer, whether a beginner or expert, Pioneer Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pioneer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pioneer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pioneer Bancorp's price trends.Pioneer Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pioneer Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pioneer Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pioneer Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pioneer Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pioneer Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pioneer Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pioneer Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pioneer Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pioneer Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pioneer Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pioneer Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pioneer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pioneer Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Pioneer Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Pioneer Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pioneer Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pioneer Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pioneer Bancorp Short Properties
Pioneer Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pioneer Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pioneer Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pioneer Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pioneer Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 407.6 M |
Additional Tools for Pioneer Stock Analysis
When running Pioneer Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Pioneer Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pioneer Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Pioneer Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pioneer Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pioneer Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pioneer Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.