PennyMac Finl Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PFSI Stock | USD 103.95 1.23 1.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is expected to be 103.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.43. PennyMac Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PennyMac Finl's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
PennyMac |
PennyMac Finl Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is expected to be 103.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 2.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennyMac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennyMac Finl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PennyMac Finl Stock Forecast Pattern
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PennyMac Finl Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PennyMac Finl's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PennyMac Finl's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.39 and 105.51, respectively. We have considered PennyMac Finl's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennyMac Finl stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennyMac Finl stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3158 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0165 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3238 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.43 |
Predictive Modules for PennyMac Finl
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennyMac Finl Svcs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PennyMac Finl's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for PennyMac Finl
For every potential investor in PennyMac, whether a beginner or expert, PennyMac Finl's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PennyMac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PennyMac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PennyMac Finl's price trends.PennyMac Finl Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PennyMac Finl stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PennyMac Finl could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PennyMac Finl by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PennyMac Finl Svcs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PennyMac Finl's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PennyMac Finl's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
PennyMac Finl Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PennyMac Finl stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PennyMac Finl shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PennyMac Finl stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PennyMac Finl Svcs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PennyMac Finl Risk Indicators
The analysis of PennyMac Finl's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PennyMac Finl's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pennymac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Variance | 2.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether PennyMac Finl Svcs offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of PennyMac Finl's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Pennymac Finl Svcs Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Pennymac Finl Svcs Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PennyMac Finl to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PennyMac Finl. If investors know PennyMac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PennyMac Finl listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.27) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 3.18 | Revenue Per Share 54.823 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 4.826 |
The market value of PennyMac Finl Svcs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PennyMac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PennyMac Finl's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PennyMac Finl's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PennyMac Finl's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PennyMac Finl's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PennyMac Finl's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PennyMac Finl is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PennyMac Finl's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.